39 Jobie Miller Ln · Monticello, MS 39641

$130,000

4 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

TOPEKA SCHOOL DISTRICT. HOUSE SITS ON 1 ACRE W/ ADDITIONAL ONE ACRE LOT INCLUDED. SECOND LOT HAS CAPABILITY OF WATER, ELECTRIC AND SEWER SYSTEM ALREADY AVAILABLE IF DESIRED. HOME IS 1509 sq. FEET OF LIVING SPACE AND SITS ON A CONCRETE SLAB AND WAS BUILT IN 1986. ORIGINAL SET UP WAS A 3 BEDROOM, 2 FULL BATH HOME. 3 YEARS AGO WE CONVERTED THE CARPORT TO A LIVING ROOM. WE THEN ADDED A WALL BETWEEN THE OLD LIVING ROOM AND DINING ROOM TO CREATE A 4TH BEDROOM. THERE IS ALSO AN XTRA ROOM OFF OF THE LIVING ROOM FOR EITHER A 5TH BEDROOM, STORAGE SPACE OR OFFICE. 2 FULL BATHS. STOCKADE FENCE SURROUNDS THE PROPERTY. REFRIGERATOR, DISHWASHER, STOVE AND MICROWAVE STAY WITH HOUSE! IF YOU HAVE CHILDREN

Key facts

• Concrete slab
• 1 acre lot
• Stockade fence

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• SECOND LOT CAPABILITY
• CONCRETE SLAB
• WALL ADDED BETWEEN ROOMS
• XTRA ROOM OFF LIVING ROOM
• STOCKADE FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #85 of 130 in MS (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,696 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.11%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $32,569
• Equity at exit: $65,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $93,665
• Equity at exit: $108,007

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39641

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $561/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $991

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $192	+0% $155	+5% $118	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $108	+0% $155	+5% $202	+10% $249
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $188	base $155	+0.5pp $121	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $130,000 Under Contract 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-17
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $561 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 82.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$561
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $1,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802490
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,725
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8812
• State rank: #85 of 130 in MS

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #6306

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,821

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,069 people
• By 2030: 11,724 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 10,955 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 10,085 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 5,614 · -53.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.6) · D 31.4% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -36.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.6 2020: R+30.6 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Current HPI: 142.2867
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $561 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.