15 Cottage Rd · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1959 1,742 sqft lot $451/sqft · 99% above area Est $165k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Woodcliff Park! Seasonal Only April 15th to October 15th. The Best of the Best: Turn-Key Coastal Sanctuary Stop searching—this is the one. Completely reimagined and "ready to go," this 2-bedroom cottage is arguably the premier property in the entire community. From brand-new infrastructure to high-end custom outdoor living, every inch of this home screams quality. The Highlights: Prime Location: Private beach access just steps away. Total Peace of Mind: All-new electric, new plumbing, updated roof, and new windows. Outdoor Luxury: Custom-built outdoor shower + outdoor half-bath for the ultimate summer lifestyle. Modern Conveniences: Brand-new laundry machines included. Elite Curb Appeal: Custom rock landscaping and new retaining walls. Massive Covered Patio: Your new favorite "outdoor room" for massive entertaining. Seasonal Community Living: Enjoy the best of summer! The community is open and vibrant from April 15th through October 15th. This is a rare, turn-key opportunity in a sought-after community. Pack your bags and start your summer on day one! Land is leased and not included in sale. Cash sale only! Seasonal Community.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Private beach access
• Updated roof

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• ALL NEW ELECTRIC
• NEW PLUMBING
• UPDATED ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• CUSTOM BUILT OUTDOOR SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $195k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.83%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,658
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 18.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Cottage Rd	0.02mi	2/1.0	450 (+4%)	10mo	$125,000	$278	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $98,116
• Equity at exit: $90,545

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $245,116
• Equity at exit: $141,809

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,448/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $1,130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,550

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,240	-5% $1,185	+0% $1,130	+5% $1,075	+10% $1,020
Rent	-10% $894	-5% $1,012	+0% $1,130	+5% $1,248	+10% $1,365
Rate	-1.0pp $1,228	-0.5pp $1,179	base $1,130	+0.5pp $1,079	+1.0pp $1,028

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    price $195,000 1172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

    Woodcliff Park! Seasonal Only April 15th to October 15th. The Best of the Best: Turn-Key Coastal Sanctuary Stop searching—this is the one. Completely reimagined and "ready to go," this 2-bedroom cottage is arguably the premier property in the entire community. From brand-new infrastructure to high-end custom outdoor living, every inch of this home screams quality. The Highlights: Prime Location: Private beach access just steps away. Total Peace of Mind: All-new electric, new plumbing, updated roof, and new windows. Outdoor Luxury: Custom-built outdoor shower + outdoor half-bath for the ultimate summer lifestyle. Modern Conveniences: Brand-new laundry machines included. Elite Curb Appeal: Custom rock landscaping and new retaining walls. Massive Covered Patio: Your new favorite "outdoor room" for massive entertaining. Seasonal Community Living: Enjoy the best of summer! The community is open and vibrant from April 15th through October 15th. This is a rare, turn-key opportunity in a sought-after community. Pack your bags and start your summer on day one! Land is leased and not included in sale. Cash sale only! Seasonal Community.

15. 2026-03-13
    listed $205,000 Active 1172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1172 chars)

    Woodcliff Park! Seasonal Only April 15th to October 15th. The Best of the Best: Turn-Key Coastal Sanctuary Stop searching—this is the one. Completely reimagined and "ready to go," this 2-bedroom cottage is arguably the premier property in the entire community. From brand-new infrastructure to high-end custom outdoor living, every inch of this home screams quality. The Highlights: Prime Location: Private beach access just steps away. Total Peace of Mind: All-new electric, new plumbing, updated roof, and new windows. Outdoor Luxury: Custom-built outdoor shower + outdoor half-bath for the ultimate summer lifestyle. Modern Conveniences: Brand-new laundry machines included. Elite Curb Appeal: Custom rock landscaping and new retaining walls. Massive Covered Patio: Your new favorite "outdoor room" for massive entertaining. Seasonal Community Living: Enjoy the best of summer! The community is open and vibrant from April 15th through October 15th. This is a rare, turn-key opportunity in a sought-after community. Pack your bags and start your summer on day one! Land is leased and not included in sale. Cash sale only! Seasonal Community.

16. 2024-11-20
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Charming Cottage in Woodcliff Park; Super Clean; Mint Condition; Interior Renovation 2023; New Roof, New Flooring, New Rear Windows, Ceiling Fans; Large Front Deck with Awning and Side Deck for Entertaining; Parking for 2 Cars; Land is Leased; Seasonal Use April 15 to Oct. 15; Cottage Owner Pays RE Taxes and Annual Land Lease; Most Furniture Included. Walk to Private Community Beach. Cash Sale Only. Gas Grill and Outdoor Furniture Included., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

17. 2024-10-28
    listed $124,990 Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Charming Cottage in Woodcliff Park; Super Clean; Mint Condition; Interior Renovation 2023; New Roof, New Flooring, New Rear Windows, Ceiling Fans; Large Front Deck with Awning and Side Deck for Entertaining; Parking for 2 Cars; Land is Leased; Seasonal Use April 15 to Oct. 15; Cottage Owner Pays RE Taxes and Annual Land Lease; Most Furniture Included. Walk to Private Community Beach. Cash Sale Only. Gas Grill and Outdoor Furniture Included., Additional information: Appearance:mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:y

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,448 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,372 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$924/yr (+$77/mo · 63.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,448
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,861
• − Management: −$2,861
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $11,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,645
• After-tax cash flow: $10,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+56.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $205,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-20 Sold (MLS) $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-28 Listed $124,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,448 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.