7648 Lake Ridge Pkwy · Abilene, TX 79602

$309,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,405 sqft lot Est $325k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Agent related to owner. New Lantrip's Custom Home in Carriage Hills, close to Wylie East schools, Kirby Lake, and with easy access to Loop 322. This new home features an open concept plan and vinyl flooring throughout. The kitchen includes custom cabinets, granite countertops, an island with sink, and corner pantry. The ensuite features a soaking tub, separate shower, dual vanities, and a large closet. Enjoy cozy evenings by the fireplace, and warm evenings outside on the covered back porch, overlooking a landscaped yard enclosed by a wooden privacy fence. Builder will include a StrucSure 2-10 Warranty. Estimated completion- September or October 2026.

Key facts

• Open concept plan
• Vinyl flooring
• Custom cabinets

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT PLAN
• VINYL FLOORING
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ISLAND WITH SINK
• CORNER PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie East El (math 58% / reading 58%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 789 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $309,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.98%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7685 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+0%)	0mo	$325,000	$197	89
7689 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+0%)	1mo	$325,000	$197	88
7693 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+0%)	0mo	$325,000	$197	88
7654 Hudson Way	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,577 (-4%)	1mo	$335,000	$212	85
132 Lake Ridge Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (+1%)	1mo	$350,000	$211	84
149 Spring Park Way	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (+4%)	1mo	$289,000	$169	75
250 Martis Way	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,650 (+0%)	1mo	$325,000	$197	73
7633 Wildflower Way	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+7%)	1mo	$348,000	$197	73
7584 Wildflower	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-8%)	0mo	$304,900	$200	68
7580 Wildflower	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-8%)	0mo	$304,900	$200	68
331 Sophia Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-1%)	0mo	$329,000	$202	64
7321 Wildflower Way	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,737 (+5%)	1mo	$335,000	$193	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-10,351
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $97,567
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,648/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,738

Max offer price $309,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7646 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	20d	1	0.16mi
7650 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	13d	1	0.17mi
7627 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$8,900	$5.57	13d	1	0.18mi
7717 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,375	$2.25	11d	1	0.23mi
7709 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,200	$2.13	43d	1	0.24mi
7625 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	1800	$3,300	$1.83	3d	1	0.24mi
405 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,895	$2.01	7d	1	0.27mi
409 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,895	$2.05	5d	1	0.27mi
385 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	2d	1	0.28mi
7949 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	43d	1	0.30mi
8001 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	43d	1	0.32mi
8009 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	43d	1	0.33mi
385 Kristi Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	2d	1	0.36mi
273 Martis Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$3,200	$1.93	13d	1	0.51mi
7328 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	11d	1	0.56mi
7326 Mountain View Rd Unit 7328 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	11d	1	0.57mi
331 Sophia Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$3,195	$1.96	3d	1	0.58mi
7319 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$4,000	$2.66	43d	1	0.59mi
7309 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$3,195	$2.02	24d	1	0.67mi
250 Southlake Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$3,400	$1.69	2d	1	0.84mi
349 Whiterock Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1809	$6,000	$3.32	17d	1	0.90mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	7d	1	1.20mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	2d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $309,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$4,648
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,066
• − Management: −$3,066
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$153
• After-tax cash flow: $4,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is a new construction with excellent condition and features. It is move-in ready with no immediate repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves appearance and value
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $309,900 NTREIS