930 Rock Creek Rd · Charlottesville, VA 22903

$295,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1979 4,791 sqft lot Est $290k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

JUST LISTED! Located within close proximity to UVA. Biking and walking paths adjacent to the neighborhood that lead to the university. Convenient to Downtown, Hospitals, Rt 64 and 5th Street Station Shopping! Recently painted, new LVP floors, wood burning fireplace, newer HVAC, nice size rooms. Privacy in the backyard. Tenant would love to stay for the long haul but there is flexibility with the lease. Agent/owner.

Key facts

• Built 1979
• Listed 18 days

Tags

• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UVA
• BIKING AND WALKING PATHS
• CONVENIENT TO DOWNTOWN
• PRIVACY IN THE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Security: Dead bolt(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water; Public sewer; Underground electric
• Home design: Attached duplex; Two levels
• Construction: Stick-built with vinyl siding; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a duplex
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Landscaped lot; Level yard; Native plants

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood burning); Dead bolt(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Dedicated laundry room (first level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-75/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.9% in Charlottesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#27 in VA, #707 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime D-.
• Charlottesville Cty Public School District (urban): math 42% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #97 of 131 in VA (top 74%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Johnson Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 322 students, 78% FRL); Walker Upper Elementary (math 31% / reading 53%, grade D-, #295 of 342 statewide, top 87%, 616 students, 72% FRL); Charlottesville High (math 53% / reading 84%, grade B, #178 of 319 statewide, top 56%, 1,359 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 50% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 34 units permitted in Charlottesville city in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlottesville County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $295k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,717 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
966 Rock Creek Rd	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	5mo	$215,000	$179	92
623 Bailey Rd	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	1mo	$298,000	$248	92
802 Orangedale Ave	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	3mo	$215,000	$179	91
809 Prospect Ave	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	6mo	$300,000	$250	90
803 Orangedale Ave	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	6mo	$300,000	$250	88
815 Prospect Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,165 (-3%)	9mo	$240,000	$206	84
960 Rock Creek Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+3%)	4mo	$295,000	$238	80
715 Prospect Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	10mo	$240,000	$200	75
753 Orangedale Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+7%)	8mo	$310,000	$242	70
562 Cleveland Ave	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,296 (+8%)	7mo	$310,000	$239	61
407 Valley Road Ext Unit A	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,088 (-9%)	3mo	$288,000	$265	55
306 Flint Dr	0.63mi	3/3.5	1,313 (+9%)	1mo	$514,900	$392	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-44,625
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-24,230
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22903

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,387 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,667/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,395

Max offer price $293,890

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $77	+0% $-6	+5% $-90	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-101	+0% $-6	+5% $88	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $69	base $-6	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Dalton Ln Charlottesville, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1154	$2,803	$2.43	15d	13	0.14mi
599 Bailey Rd Charlottesville, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,350	$1.96	15d	1	0.17mi
1406 Baker St Unit N/A Charlottesville, VA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	23d	1	0.46mi
210 5th St SW Charlottesville, VA	3.0	1.0	1482	$2,500	$1.69	23d	1	0.87mi
207 Monte Vista Ave Unit 1 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,450	$1.76	23d	1	0.93mi
614 Brown St Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,875	$1.74	15d	1	0.98mi
1029 Wertland St Unit 109 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	770	$2,500	$3.25	23d	1	1.06mi
620 Belmont Ave Charlottesville, VA	2.0	1.0	768	$2,595	$3.38	23d	1	1.08mi
2709 Eton Rd Charlottesville, VA	3.0	1.0	1228	$2,100	$1.71	15d	1	1.11mi
300 4th St SE Charlottesville, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	1004	$2,120	$2.11	15d	4	1.17mi
206 Stribling Ave Unit B Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,200	$1.75	23d	1	1.19mi
200 Lake Club Ct Charlottesville, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$2,635	$2.67	15d	31	1.20mi
727 Denali Way #205 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	45d	1	1.24mi
400 10th St NW Charlottesville, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,918	$3.21	15d	7	1.24mi
725 Denali Way #104 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,892	$2.10	15d	1	1.25mi
800 Castalia St Unit B Charlottesville, VA	2.0	1.0	805	$1,525	$1.89	23d	1	1.26mi
1534 Virginia Ave Unit A Charlottesville, VA	4.0	3.0	1475	$950	$0.64	23d	1	1.29mi
1534 Virginia Ave Unit 101 101-C Charlottesville, VA	4.0	3.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	23d	1	1.29mi
411 Afton Pond Ct Charlottesville, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,338	$2.40	15d	11	1.30mi
130 Apple Tree Rd Charlottesville, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	857	$1,600	$1.87	23d	3	1.30mi
130 Apple Tree Rd Unit A Charlottesville, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	23d	1	1.30mi
504 12th St NW Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,850	$2.24	15d	1	1.31mi
100 Wahoo Way Charlottesville, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1159	$2,272	$1.96	15d	45	1.39mi
100 Yellowstone Dr Charlottesville, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$1,948	$2.55	15d	1	1.41mi
1789 Sugar Maple Ct Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1302	$2,175	$1.67	15d	1	1.41mi
325 Timberland Ln Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.0	1030	$1,917	$1.86	15d	5	1.41mi
507 16th St NW Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	700	$1,850	$2.64	15d	1	1.42mi
1734 Sugar Maple Ct Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1302	$1,915	$1.47	23d	1	1.44mi
202 Douglas Ave Unit 1F Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	15d	1	1.45mi
1745 Sugar Maple Ct Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	1381	$2,295	$1.66	45d	1	1.45mi
1745 Sugar Maple Ct Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	1381	$2,025	$1.47	23d	1	1.45mi
810 Catalpa Ct Unit 1745 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	1381	$2,025	$1.47	23d	1	1.47mi
810 Catalpa Ct Unit 1785 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	1381	$2,150	$1.56	45d	1	1.47mi
810 Catalpa Ct Unit 1137 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1302	$2,045	$1.57	45d	1	1.47mi
810 Catalpa Ct Unit 1747 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1302	$2,175	$1.67	23d	1	1.47mi
810 Catalpa Ct Unit 1316 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1302	$2,095	$1.61	15d	1	1.47mi
810 Catalpa Ct Unit 1035 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	1381	$2,295	$1.66	15d	1	1.47mi
810 Catalpa Ct Unit 1734 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1302	$1,915	$1.47	23d	1	1.47mi
810 Catalpa Ct Unit 921 Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	1367	$1,925	$1.41	23d	1	1.47mi
921 Catalpa Ter Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,195	$1.61	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $295,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 418-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $295,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$2,667
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,292
• − Management: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$5,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $1,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlottesville Cty Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100780
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,211
• Composite: 43.68/100
• National rank: #2957
• State rank: #97 of 131 in VA

Livability — Charlottesville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #707

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime D- Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Charlottesville, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• City population: 120,202
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 40,372
• Household income: $69,340
• Rent vs Own: 57.8% rent · 42.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3060.0

Population outlook (Charlottesville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,816 people
• By 2030: 57,857 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 63,933 · +18.8%
• By 2050: 69,676 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 77,018 · +43.1%
• By 2100: 82,078 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 15% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlottesville

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+68.7) · D 83.4% · R 14.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.7pp toward D · 2008: 58.0pp · 2024: 68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+68.7 2020: D+72.7 2016: D+67.1 2012: D+53.4 2008: D+58.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -448.28%
• Current HPI: 306.8503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+473.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $295,000 CAAR
• 2024-06-07 Rental Removed $2,000 CAAR
• 2024-06-05 Listed for Rent $2,000 CAAR
• 2024-06-04 Rental Removed $2,000 CCAR
• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $2,000 CCAR
• 2024-03-04 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2024-03-01 Listed $269,900 CAAR
• 2024-02-13 Listed for Rent $1,850 CCAR
• 2006-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $116,100 Public Records
• 2004-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-17 Listed $109,900 CAAR
• 2003-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2002-07-24 Listed $72,500 CAAR
• 1996-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $51,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,667 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.