Mariner Plan · Cleburne, TX 76033

$67,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is designed for real life! Ready for a thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a wide-open flow through the living room, dining area, and kitchen-making everyday living and family time easier? We've got you! This home offers over 1,140 sq. ft. of comfort, function, and style. Your kitchen features a generous center island, perfect for snacks, homework, or conversations over coffee, plus plenty of storage to keep everything organized and streamlined. Your primary suite is tucked away for privacy and comfort, featuring a spacious walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with dual sinks-your personal retreat after a long day. Two additional bedrooms give children or guests their own cozy spaces, with a second full bath nearby for convenience. Efficiency and smart features come standard-from energy-efficient windows and smart thermostat options to modern finishes and quality insulation-helping you stay comfortable year-round while keeping utility costs low. Here, you're not just buying a house-and it's not just where you live-it's the community where you belong. Enjoy resort-style amenities like a welcoming clubhouse, inviting swimming pool, 24-hour fitness center, and cozy coffee lounge. Plus, our on-site sales office and fully managed maintenance program-including lawn care and snow removal-give you more time to focus on what matters most. Schedule a visit today! Discover the perfect blend of style, comfort, and value in a community you'll be proud to call home.

Key facts

• Modern finishes
• Listed 62 days

Tags

• GENEROUS CENTER ISLAND
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH WITH DUAL SINKS
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• SMART THERMOSTAT OPTIONS
• MODERN FINISHES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $759 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 660 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,915 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.84%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $32,793
• Equity at exit: $10,138

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $73,285
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,039 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76033

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 660
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $67,995

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,999
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1501 Park Blvd Cleburne, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1456	$1,795	$1.23	1d	22	0.22mi
1211 Country Club Rd Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	994	$1,395	$1.40	24d	1	0.61mi
1304 Berry Dr Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	20d	1	0.65mi
1302 Berry Dr Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	1.0	861	$1,400	$1.63	43d	1	0.66mi
1502 Sharron Ct Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	24d	1	0.81mi
1502 Sharron Ct Unit A Cleburne, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,400	$1.28	22d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,995 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,995 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,995 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,995 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,995 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,995 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,995 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $67,995 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $67,995 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,995 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,995 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,995 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,995 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $67,995 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    This home is designed for real life! Ready for a thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a wide-open flow through the living room, dining area, and kitchen-making everyday living and family time easier? We've got you! This home offers over 1,140 sq. ft. of comfort, function, and style. Your kitchen features a generous center island, perfect for snacks, homework, or conversations over coffee, plus plenty of storage to keep everything organized and streamlined. Your primary suite is tucked away for privacy and comfort, featuring a spacious walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with dual sinks-your personal retreat after a long day. Two additional bedrooms give children or guests their own cozy spaces, with a second full bath nearby for convenience. Efficiency and smart features come standard-from energy-efficient windows and smart thermostat options to modern finishes and quality insulation-helping you stay comfortable year-round while keeping utility costs low. Here, you're not just buying a house-and it's not just where you live-it's the community where you belong. Enjoy resort-style amenities like a welcoming clubhouse, inviting swimming pool, 24-hour fitness center, and cozy coffee lounge. Plus, our on-site sales office and fully managed maintenance program-including lawn care and snow removal-give you more time to focus on what matters most. Schedule a visit today! Discover the perfect blend of style, comfort, and value in a community you'll be proud to call home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $8,534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,048
• After-tax cash flow: $7,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, interior, HVAC, and landscaping to become move-in ready and significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in photos
• Major exterior siding — No visible exterior in photos
• Major interior walls/paint — No interior photos
• Major HVAC/mechanical — No HVAC/mechanical photos
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No landscaping/curb appeal photos

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Critical to the home's structural integrity and appearance
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Enhances interior aesthetics and value
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof in photos	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · No visible exterior in photos	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No interior photos	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanical · No HVAC/mechanical photos	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No landscaping/curb appeal photos	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Critical to the home's structural integrity and appearance ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 29,538
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,538
• Household income: $76,292
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 927.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.75%
• Current HPI: 246.0029
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $67,995 Zillow