515 W Main St · Gonzales, LA 70737

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,161 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

0.47 ac lot $58/sqft · 49% below area Est $244k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! POSSIBLE DUPLEX!!!! NEEDS REHAB!!! CASH OR CONVENTIONAL ONLY! LOADS OF ROOM, BEAUTIFUL LOT FACING NEW RIVER! LOTS OF POTENTIAL!! TO BE SOLD AS IS!! NO REPAIRS TO BE MADE BY SELLERS! MINUTES TO AIRLINE HWY AND INTERSTATE IN DOWNTOWN GONZALES!!

Key facts

• New river
• Downtown gonzales
• Beautiful lot

Tags

• BEAUTIFUL LOT
• NEW RIVER
• MINUTES TO AIRLINE HWY
• MINUTES TO INTERSTATE
• DOWNTOWN GONZALES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $889 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 4.5% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.47%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,458
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -48.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 N Bryan Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,231 (+3%)	2mo	$140,000	$63	65
5013 Colmar Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,278 (+5%)	5mo	$543,050	$238	65
410 E Mcarthur St	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,046 (-5%)	12mo	$255,000	$125	53
415 E Sanders St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,378 (+10%)	3mo	$95,900	$40	44
406 N Frances Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,058 (-5%)	15mo	$239,900	$117	44
410 E Weber St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,911 (-12%)	5mo	$279,900	$146	40
317 W Manfred St	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,860 (-14%)	14mo	$249,900	$134	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $36,862
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $107,128
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 567
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39534 Legacy Lake Dr Gonzales, LA	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,000	$0.95	14d	1	0.81mi
39511 Auster Ln Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,150	$1.47	14d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $145,000 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! POSSIBLE DUPLEX!!!! NEEDS REHAB!!! CASH OR CONVENTIONAL ONLY! LOADS OF ROOM, BEAUTIFUL LOT FACING NEW RIVER! LOTS OF POTENTIAL!! TO BE SOLD AS IS!! NO REPAIRS TO BE MADE BY SELLERS! MINUTES TO AIRLINE HWY AND INTERSTATE IN DOWNTOWN GONZALES!!

17. 2026-03-26
    listed $145,000 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! POSSIBLE DUPLEX!!!! NEEDS REHAB!!! CASH OR CONVENTIONAL ONLY! LOADS OF ROOM, BEAUTIFUL LOT FACING NEW RIVER! LOTS OF POTENTIAL!! TO BE SOLD AS IS!! NO REPAIRS TO BE MADE BY SELLERS! MINUTES TO AIRLINE HWY AND INTERSTATE IN DOWNTOWN GONZALES!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $9,148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,196
• After-tax cash flow: $8,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #12429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzales, LA
• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,084
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $145,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $145,000 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $708 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.