107 E Swordfish Unit 202 (D) · South Padre Island, TX
Flood risk 9/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 30 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +12.6/30.0
- ARV discount +9.8/15.0
- DSCR +3.8/10.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- 1% rule +3.6/10.0
- Livability +3.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.9/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$284,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Experience the vibrant nightlife of South Padre Island right at your doorstep with this centrally located two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo. Blue Marlin Supermarket, Jim's Pier, Tequila Sunset Bar, Louie's Backyard and so much more are all within proximity. Step outside onto the outdoor patio off the primary bedroom and take in the island breeze. This condo comes fully furnished, including all decorations, stainless steel kitchen appliances, and a washer and dryer. Everything you need for a comfortable stay is already included. The property boasts a well-appointed kitchen with granite countertops, a glass backsplash, and ceramic wood-look flooring throughout. Whether you're looking for a vacation home, investment property, or a permanent residence, this condo has everything you need. Don't miss out on this opportunity to own a piece of paradise on South Padre Island.
Key facts
- Granite countertops
- Outdoor patio
- Fully furnished
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (23.4% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (14.0% below list).
- Recommended offer: $218k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.8% in South Padre Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,077 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
- Point Isabel ISD (town): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #756 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Port Isabel J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 425 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 35% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 580 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 14895% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.86% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.15%
- Cash-on-cash
- -0.51%
- DSCR
- 0.98
- GRM
- 9.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $300,426
- List price
- $284,900
- Delta
- -5.17%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112 E Swordfish St E #3 | 0.03mi | 2/2.0 | 959 (+4%) | 21mo | $360,000 | $375 | 74 |
| 106 E Atol St #1 | 0.40mi | 2/2.0 | 882 (-4%) | 3mo | $310,000 | $351 | 71 |
| 3113 Laguna Blvd #204 | 0.27mi | 2/2.0 | 896 (-3%) | 15mo | $364,900 | $407 | 70 |
| 113 E Retama St #10 | 0.42mi | 2/2.0 | 850 (-8%) | 0mo | $315,000 | $371 | 67 |
| 107 Bahama #7 | 0.33mi | 2/2.0 | 884 (-4%) | 20mo | $295,000 | $334 | 61 |
| 107 E Pike St #2 | 0.15mi | 2/2.0 | 800 (-13%) | 13mo | $329,000 | $411 | 60 |
| 3608 Gulf Blvd Unit A2 | 0.46mi | 2/2.0 | 986 (+7%) | 9mo | $490,000 | $497 | 60 |
| 115 E Marlin St Unit A | 0.27mi | 2/2.0 | 1,055 (+14%) | 20mo | $449,000 | $426 | 47 |
| 117 E Marlin St Unit A | 0.27mi | 2/2.0 | 1,055 (+14%) | 20mo | $449,000 | $426 | 47 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -28.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.06×
- Total profit
- $-75,201
- Equity at exit
- $42,480
- IRR
- -26.6%
- Equity multiple
- -0.28×
- Total profit
- $-102,041
- Equity at exit
- $24,633
Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 54 active · 11 under contract
- Months of supply
- 64.8 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $352,000 ($370/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 131 d
- This list price
- 6% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -12.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 78597
- Home prices YoY
- -13.5%
- Active inventory
- 580
- Price-to-rent
- 9.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,449 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,494
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
- Insurance
- −$119
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$514
- Net cashflow
- $-461
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-264 | -5% $-362 | +0% $-461 | +5% $-559 | +10% $-657 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-654 | -5% $-557 | +0% $-461 | +5% $-364 | +10% $-267 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-317 | -0.5pp $-388 | base $-461 | +0.5pp $-534 | +1.0pp $-609 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $71,225
- Closing costs
- $8,547
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 21 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110 E Amberjack St Unit 1 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 856 | $2,660 | $3.11 | 70d | 1 | 0.04mi |
| 126 E Swordfish St Unit 4 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $2,670 | $2.97 | 93d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 126 E Swordfish St Unit 1 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 900 | $2,600 | $2.89 | 93d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 123 E Dolphin St Unit 2 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 995 | $2,200 | $2.21 | 93d | 1 | 0.14mi |
| 118 E Campeche St Unit 1515050P South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 990 | $4,170 | $4.21 | 70d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 114 E Atol St #4 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 853 | $2,100 | $2.46 | 93d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 109 E Retama St South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 885 | $2,100 | $2.37 | 93d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 111 W Sunny Isle Dr Unit 201 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 928 | $2,500 | $2.69 | 63d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 113 W Sunny Isle Dr Unit 2 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $2,300 | $3.07 | 63d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 117 E Lantana St Unit 1515053P South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1108 | $3,332 | $3.01 | 63d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 210 W Gardenia St Unit 12 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 684 | $2,450 | $3.58 | 63d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 210 W Gardenia St Unit 11 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 684 | $2,000 | $2.92 | 93d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 109 E Venus Ln Unit 2 South Padre Island, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,250 | $1.67 | 70d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 109 E Venus Ln Unit 3 South Padre Island, TX | 1.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,150 | $1.53 | 70d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 107 E Venus Ln Unit 1 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,275 | $1.70 | 63d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 101 E Capricorn Dr Unit B South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 800 | $2,300 | $2.88 | 93d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 404 Padre Blvd Unit 1507754P South Padre Island, TX | 1.0 | 2.0 | 667 | $3,382 | $5.07 | 63d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 106 W Capricorn Dr South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1084 | $2,200 | $2.03 | 93d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 103 E Aries Dr #3 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1021 | $2,200 | $2.15 | 93d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 102 W Aries Dr Unit A South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1084 | $2,150 | $1.98 | 63d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 111 E Polaris Dr #7 South Padre Island, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 882 | $1,800 | $2.04 | 93d | 1 | 1.30mi |
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $284,900 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $284,900 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $284,900 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $284,900 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $284,900 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $284,900 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $284,900 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-07-29pricedays on market $284,900 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $289,900 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $289,900 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $289,900 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $289,900 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $289,900 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $289,900 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $289,900 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $289,900 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $289,900 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $289,900 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-07-12days on market $289,900 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $289,900 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $289,900 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $289,900 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-08days on market $289,900 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $289,900 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $289,900 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $289,900 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-07-04days on market $289,900 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $289,900 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $289,900 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $289,900 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $289,900 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $289,900 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $289,900 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $289,900 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $289,900 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $289,900 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-06-23days on market $289,900 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $289,900 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $289,900 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $289,900 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $289,900 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $289,900 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $289,900 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $289,900 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $289,900 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $289,900 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $289,900 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $289,900 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $289,900 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $289,900 Active 69 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $29,390
- − Mortgage interest
- −$15,959
- − Property taxes
- −$4,274
- − Insurance
- −$6,543
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,351
- − Management
- −$2,351
- − Depreciation
- −$8,288
- Taxable loss
- −$10,376
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,490
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,037/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It's located in a desirable area with easy access to local amenities.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Painting the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
- Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more tenants ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Point Isabel ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4835250
- Math proficiency
- 14% ▼ -24.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 31% ▼ -10.00%
- Median HH income
- $38,115
- Composite
- 18.78/100
- National rank
- #8871
- State rank
- #756 of 826 in TX
Livability — South Padre Island
- Score
- 60/100
- State rank
- #1077
- US rank
- #19107
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- South Padre Island, TX
- County
- Cameron County · 441,603 people
- Metro
- Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 2,935
- Household income
- $68,421
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 20% of renters
Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 441,603 people
- By 2030
- 448,113 · +1.5%
- By 2040
- 456,385 · +3.3%
- By 2050
- 456,294 · +3.3%
- By 2075
- 423,851 · -4.0%
- By 2100
- 342,787 · -22.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (76%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 14%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% German 2%
- Foreign-born
- 13% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Cameron
- 2024 margin
- Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -66.59%
- Current HPI
- 425.29
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
||
Price history
-99.4% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-29 Listed for Rent $1,900 SPIBOR
- 2026-04-29 Rental Removed $1,900 MCALLENMLS
- 2026-04-29 Listed $299,900 SPIBOR
- 2026-03-26 Listed for Rent $1,900 MCALLENMLS
- 2026-03-25 Listed $299,900 MCALLENMLS
- 2024-06-14 Price Changed $299,900 SPIBOR
- 2024-06-14 Price Changed $299,900 MCALLENMLS
- 2024-03-07 Listed $304,900 MCALLENMLS
- 2024-03-05 Listed $304,900 SPIBOR
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…