2529 NW 38th Pl · Lawton, OK 73505

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 360 Days on market

Built 1959 7,200 sqft lot Est $81k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE CUT!! Roomy home for an even better price! Large extra living area has been added on in the back. Home has newer double pane windows, newer exterior doors, newer central heat and air (Lennox), some new interior doors, fresh paint, some new light fixtures. Very close to Ft. Sill. Was a rental but Seller wants to sell. Being sold As-Is. Vacant and easy to show. NOTE: Water line under driveway broke so there is gravel until the City can get the line replaced and concrete re-poured.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Fenced backyard
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• REMODELED
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $600 annual tax amount

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 total garage space (detached/attached not specified)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Updated / remodeled; Brick veneer exterior
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with brick veneer
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain-link fencing; Spa / hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range hood; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Double-pane windows with window coverings; Therapeutic whirlpool (accessibility feature)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ridgecrest Es (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #413 of 845 statewide, top 54%, 453 students, 0% FRL); Lawton Hs (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #302 of 447 statewide, top 68%, 1,417 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 398 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 5900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $65k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.24%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,066
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2809 NW 35th Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+9%)	4mo	$75,000	$50	68
4313 NW Pollard Ave	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+2%)	1mo	$76,000	$54	68
3512 NW Rogers Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-13%)	2mo	$94,700	$79	65
2414 NW 30th St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-13%)	2mo	$45,000	$38	64
2236 NW Lindy Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-5%)	5mo	$32,500	$25	63
2209 NW Smith Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+2%)	4mo	$82,500	$59	60
1635 NW 26th St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-5%)	4mo	$68,272	$53	52
2305 NW 43rd St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-13%)	5mo	$65,000	$54	52
2424 NW 42nd St	0.39mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-13%)	8mo	$121,500	$101	47
1703 NW 43rd St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-13%)	2mo	$171,450	$143	46
2136 NW Carroll Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-13%)	2mo	$114,000	$95	43
2611 NW 46th Pl	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-13%)	8mo	$98,500	$82	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $23,213
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $74,086
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73505

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 398
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $743/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $616

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $554	-5% $533	+0% $512	+5% $490	+10% $469
Rent	-10% $412	-5% $462	+0% $512	+5% $562	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $531	base $512	+0.5pp $492	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-11
   historical $1,100
3. 2025-12-23
   price $1,100
4. 2025-12-16
   price $1,175
5. 2025-11-21
   price $1,200
6. 2025-10-31
   listed $1,250
7. 2025-09-12
   soldstatus $65,000
8. 2025-08-28
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2025-08-01
   status Active
10. 2025-07-21
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2025-07-08
    status Active
12. 2025-07-08
    price $75,000
13. 2025-06-06
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2025-05-19
    listed $80,000 Active
15. 2018-11-02
    soldstatus $23,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    PRICE CUT!! Roomy home for an even better price! Large extra living area has been added on in the back. Home has newer double pane windows, newer exterior doors, newer central heat and air (Lennox), some new interior doors, fresh paint, some new light fixtures. Very close to Ft. Sill. Was a rental but Seller wants to sell. Being sold As-Is. Vacant and easy to show. NOTE: Water line under driveway broke so there is gravel until the City can get the line replaced and concrete re-poured.

16. 2018-09-20
    listed $25,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    PRICE CUT!! Roomy home for an even better price! Large extra living area has been added on in the back. Home has newer double pane windows, newer exterior doors, newer central heat and air (Lennox), some new interior doors, fresh paint, some new light fixtures. Very close to Ft. Sill. Was a rental but Seller wants to sell. Being sold As-Is. Vacant and easy to show. NOTE: Water line under driveway broke so there is gravel until the City can get the line replaced and concrete re-poured.

17. 2004-04-07
    soldstatus $65,000
18. 1992-11-12
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $743 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $743 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$743
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,235
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $4,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 47,790
• Household income: $58,272
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1986.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.88%
• Current HPI: 169.4524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-97.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2026-01-11 Rental Removed $1,100 BUILDIUM
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $1,100 BUILDIUM
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $1,175 BUILDIUM
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2025-10-31 Listed for Rent $1,250 BUILDIUM
• 2025-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-28 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — LBRMLS
• 2025-07-21 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Relisted — LBRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $75,000 LBRMLS
• 2025-06-06 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $80,000 LBRMLS
• 2018-11-02 Sold (MLS) $23,000 LBRMLS
• 2018-09-20 Listed $25,000 LBRMLS
• 2004-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $743 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.