2761 Oak Trail Shores Dr · Sunrise Shores, TX 75758

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1998 0.30 ac lot $98/sqft · at area comps Est $122k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Siding will be finished * Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space in the Oak Trail Shores of Chandler. Completely taken down to the frame and thoughtfully updated, this home offers a fresh start with endless potential to make it your own. As you arrive, you’re welcomed by a fenced-in front yard—perfect for kids or pets—along with a nicely sized covered front porch ideal for relaxing outdoors. Inside, the home features an open and inviting layout with a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, all filled with natural light. The kitchen stands out with abundant counter space, beautiful countertops, pops of color in the cabinetry, and unique light fixtures that add personality and charm. All bedrooms and bathrooms are comfortably sized and offer flexibility to fit your needs. The primary suite features elegant double doors leading into a spacious bathroom complete with a nice shower, ample counter space, and plenty of cabinet storage. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard with room to entertain, relax, or create your ideal outdoor space. Conveniently located near Lake Palestine, this home is perfect for those looking to enjoy a peaceful setting with close access to the water. With its updates, space, and location, this property is a great opportunity to create a home that truly fits your lifestyle.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.1% in Sunrise Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.14%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,793
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 2.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2957 Waterwood Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,170 (-9%)	8mo	$120,000	$103	75
21039 Woodland Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	10mo	$129,000	$106	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,975
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $38,893
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75758

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $621/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $983

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $125,000 1441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1441 chars)

    * Siding will be finished * Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space in the Oak Trail Shores of Chandler. Completely taken down to the frame and thoughtfully updated, this home offers a fresh start with endless potential to make it your own. As you arrive, you’re welcomed by a fenced-in front yard—perfect for kids or pets—along with a nicely sized covered front porch ideal for relaxing outdoors. Inside, the home features an open and inviting layout with a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, all filled with natural light. The kitchen stands out with abundant counter space, beautiful countertops, pops of color in the cabinetry, and unique light fixtures that add personality and charm. All bedrooms and bathrooms are comfortably sized and offer flexibility to fit your needs. The primary suite features elegant double doors leading into a spacious bathroom complete with a nice shower, ample counter space, and plenty of cabinet storage. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard with room to entertain, relax, or create your ideal outdoor space. Conveniently located near Lake Palestine, this home is perfect for those looking to enjoy a peaceful setting with close access to the water. With its updates, space, and location, this property is a great opportunity to create a home that truly fits your lifestyle.

17. 2026-04-02
    listed $129,900 Active 1441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1441 chars)

    * Siding will be finished * Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering 1,280 square feet of comfortable living space in the Oak Trail Shores of Chandler. Completely taken down to the frame and thoughtfully updated, this home offers a fresh start with endless potential to make it your own. As you arrive, you’re welcomed by a fenced-in front yard—perfect for kids or pets—along with a nicely sized covered front porch ideal for relaxing outdoors. Inside, the home features an open and inviting layout with a spacious living room that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, all filled with natural light. The kitchen stands out with abundant counter space, beautiful countertops, pops of color in the cabinetry, and unique light fixtures that add personality and charm. All bedrooms and bathrooms are comfortably sized and offer flexibility to fit your needs. The primary suite features elegant double doors leading into a spacious bathroom complete with a nice shower, ample counter space, and plenty of cabinet storage. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard with room to entertain, relax, or create your ideal outdoor space. Conveniently located near Lake Palestine, this home is perfect for those looking to enjoy a peaceful setting with close access to the water. With its updates, space, and location, this property is a great opportunity to create a home that truly fits your lifestyle.

18. 2024-08-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $621 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,667/yr (+$139/mo · 268.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$621
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,444
• − Management: −$1,444
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$739
• After-tax cash flow: $4,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sunrise Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,357

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.16%
• Current HPI: 192.0837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $125,000 GTAR
• 2026-04-02 Listed $129,900 GTAR
• 2024-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $621 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.