6537 Firefly Dr · Bagdad, FL 32583

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Rivers Cove community offers residents: Gorgeous Community Pool, Community Center and a nice Community Playground. The new 'CALLAWAY' floorplan is a charming Florida cottage style home with no wasted space, a desirable open design for relaxed living. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Easy care beautiful wood-look flooring, delightful kitchen with stainless appliances, quiet dishwasher, smooth top range, built in microwave and pantry. Also included is Fabric hurricane door/window protection and a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient Smart Home Devices you will enjoy. ALL LISTING pictures, colors, features, and size may vary. Square footages are approximate.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (association-managed, fee paid annually); Community amenities include a pool, community room, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper wiring with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story home; Detached (not attached to other properties); Under construction / new construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Porch; Shingle roof; Interior lot; Paved road; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11.7' x 11.4')
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; New construction
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Baseboards; Double-pane windows; Storm windows; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

🏗️ New construction. The $249,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $244,615.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $207,386 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,615
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6509 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	0mo	$244,900	$203	100
6497 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	1mo	$239,900	$199	99
6489 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	3mo	$249,900	$207	97
6481 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	3mo	$245,000	$203	97
6473 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$244,900	$203	97
6449 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	5mo	$245,000	$203	95
6461 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	6mo	$240,000	$199	95
6333 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	9mo	$254,900	$212	92
6333 Firefly Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	9mo	$254,900	$212	79
4331 Audiss Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,153 (-4%)	2mo	$220,000	$191	78
6349 Firefly Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	9mo	$250,000	$207	77
6333 Rice St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+1%)	4mo	$250,000	$206	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,155
• Equity at exit: $36,473

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-32,378
• Equity at exit: $21,150

Cash invested: $68,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,669/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,209

Max offer price $229,113

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,154
• Closing costs: $7,338
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	21d	1	0.24mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	23d	1	0.88mi
6436 Highway 90 Milton, FL	2.0	1.0	512	$1,395	$2.72	14d	8	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $249,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $255,900 Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    The Rivers Cove community offers residents: Gorgeous Community Pool, Community Center and a nice Community Playground. The new 'CALLAWAY' floorplan is a charming Florida cottage style home with no wasted space, a desirable open design for relaxed living. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Easy care beautiful wood-look flooring, delightful kitchen with stainless appliances, quiet dishwasher, smooth top range, built in microwave and pantry. Also included is Fabric hurricane door/window protection and a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient Smart Home Devices you will enjoy. ALL LISTING pictures, colors, features, and size may vary. Square footages are approximate.

17. 2026-05-05
    listed $255,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,702
• − Property taxes: −$3,669
• − Insurance: −$1,223
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$7,116
• Taxable loss: −$5,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,312
• After-tax cash flow: $26/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It's a great investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens up the interior and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens up the interior and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $255,900 ECAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $255,900 PARMLS