6537 Firefly Dr · Bagdad, FL 32583

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,205 sqft · SingleFamily · 143 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Rivers Cove community offers residents: Gorgeous Community Pool, Community Center and a nice Community Playground. The new 'CALLAWAY' floorplan is a charming Florida cottage style home with no wasted space, a desirable open design for relaxed living. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Easy care beautiful wood-look flooring, delightful kitchen with stainless appliances, quiet dishwasher, smooth top range, built in microwave and pantry. Also included is Fabric hurricane door/window protection and a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient Smart Home Devices you will enjoy. ALL LISTING pictures, colors, features, and size may vary. Square footages are approximate.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $234,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $252,966.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bagdad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 69% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 118d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $206,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,966
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -7.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6517 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	2mo	$234,900	$195	98
6509 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$244,900	$203	97
6497 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$239,900	$199	97
6489 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	6mo	$249,900	$207	95
6481 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	6mo	$245,000	$203	94
6473 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	7mo	$244,900	$203	94
6449 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	8mo	$245,000	$203	93
6461 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	9mo	$240,000	$199	92
6333 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	12mo	$254,900	$212	90
6333 Firefly Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,205 (0%)	12mo	$254,900	$212	77
4331 Audiss Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,153 (-4%)	5mo	$220,000	$191	76
6333 Rice St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,215 (+1%)	7mo	$250,000	$206	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-47,683
• Equity at exit: $37,718

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-40,364
• Equity at exit: $21,872

Cash invested: $70,831 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $244,950 ($203/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,794/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,283

Max offer price $230,217

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-70	+0% $-157	+5% $-245	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-240	+0% $-157	+5% $-75	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-93	base $-157	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,242
• Closing costs: $7,589
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	118d	1	0.24mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	120d	1	0.88mi
6436 Highway 90 Milton, FL	3.0	1.0	625	$1,675	$2.68	0d	7	1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area approximately 1,205 square feetLot about 0.15 acresPrivate road directions available
• HOA & community: Annual association fee (approximately $655) covering association servicesCommunity poolCommunity roomSidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayOpen parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: Single-story homeNot attached to another propertyProperty currently under constructionNew construction
• Construction: Frame constructionSlab foundationBuilt as part of new construction
• Exterior features: Front porchShingle roofInterior lotPaved road accessPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countersPantryBuilt-in microwaveDishwasherElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11.7' x 11.4')
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsNew construction bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: BaseboardsDouble-pane windowsStorm windowsShutters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups

HOA detail $55/mo · $660/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-25
   days on market $234,900 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $234,900 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-09-23
   days on market $234,900 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-09-22
   days on market $234,900 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-09-21
   days on market $234,900 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-09-20
   days on market $234,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-09-19
   days on market $234,900 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-09-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-09-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-09-16
    days on market $234,900 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-09-15
    days on market $234,900 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-09-15
    price $234,900 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-09-14
    days on market $237,900 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-09-13
    days on market $237,900 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-09-12
    days on market $237,900 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $237,900 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-09-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 123 DOM
18. 2026-09-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 122 DOM
19. 2026-09-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 121 DOM
20. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 118 DOM
21. 2026-08-30
    days on market $242,900 Active 117 DOM
22. 2026-08-29
    days on market $242,900 Active 116 DOM
23. 2026-08-28
    days on market $242,900 Active 115 DOM
24. 2026-08-27
    days on market $242,900 Active 114 DOM
25. 2026-08-26
    days on market $242,900 Active 113 DOM
26. 2026-08-25
    days on market $242,900 Active 112 DOM
27. 2026-08-24
    days on market $242,900 Active 111 DOM
28. 2026-08-23
    days on market $242,900 Active 110 DOM
29. 2026-08-22
    days on market $242,900 Active 109 DOM
30. 2026-08-21
    days on market $242,900 Active 108 DOM
31. 2026-08-20
    days on market $242,900 Active 107 DOM
32. 2026-08-19
    days on market $242,900 Active 106 DOM
33. 2026-08-18
    days on market $242,900 Active 105 DOM
34. 2026-08-17
    days on market $242,900 Active 104 DOM
35. 2026-08-16
    days on market $242,900 Active 103 DOM
36. 2026-08-15
    days on market $242,900 Active 102 DOM
37. 2026-08-14
    days on market $242,900 Active 101 DOM
38. 2026-08-13
    days on market $242,900 Active 100 DOM
39. 2026-08-12
    days on market $242,900 Active 99 DOM
40. 2026-08-11
    days on market $242,900 Active 98 DOM
41. 2026-08-10
    days on market $242,900 Active 97 DOM
42. 2026-08-09
    days on market $242,900 Active 96 DOM
43. 2026-08-08
    days on market $242,900 Active 95 DOM
44. 2026-08-07
    days on market $242,900 Active 94 DOM
45. 2026-08-06
    days on market $242,900 Active 93 DOM
46. 2026-08-05
    days on market $242,900 Active 92 DOM
47. 2026-08-04
    days on market $242,900 Active 91 DOM
48. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $242,900 Active 90 DOM
49. 2026-07-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 87 DOM
50. 2026-07-29
    days on market $244,900 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,170
• − Property taxes: −$3,794
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$7,359
• Taxable loss: −$6,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,499
• After-tax cash flow: $-387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,025–$18,075 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It's a great investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens up the interior and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bagdad Elementary School F FL #1,403/2,144 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hobbs Middle School C FL #254/571 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Milton High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 195,978 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area approximately 1,205 square feetLot about 0.15 acresPrivate road directions available
• HOA & community: Annual association fee (approximately $655) covering association servicesCommunity poolCommunity roomSidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayOpen parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: Single-story homeNot attached to another propertyProperty currently under constructionNew construction
• Construction: Frame constructionSlab foundationBuilt as part of new construction
• Exterior features: Front porchShingle roofInterior lotPaved road accessPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countersPantryBuilt-in microwaveDishwasherElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11.7' x 11.4')
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsNew construction bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: BaseboardsDouble-pane windowsStorm windowsShutters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $249,900 PARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $249,900 ECAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $255,900 ECAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $255,900 PARMLS