17492 Virginia City Dr · Deerwood, TX 77306

$128,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 192 Days on market

Built 2000 Fair condition 0.28 ac lot $120/sqft · 11% below area Est $144k · 11% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Singlewide sitting on a corner lot, close to shopping and entertainment for the whole family. 15 minutes away from I-45 and I-69. Nice property with lots of potential for improvements. Come see for your self and let your creativity fly. House has an extra room with a full bath that is half way built.

Key facts

• Extra room
• Full bath
• Close to shopping

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• EXTRA ROOM
• FULL BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.91%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,270
• List price: $128,000
• Delta: -11.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16509 Brittany Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+5%)	4mo	$129,900	$116	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $15,203
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $59,434
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $432/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,001

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $601	+0% $565	+5% $529	+10% $492
Rent	-10% $429	-5% $497	+0% $565	+5% $633	+10% $700
Rate	-1.0pp $629	-0.5pp $597	base $565	+0.5pp $532	+1.0pp $498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	44d	1	0.88mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	44d	1	1.49mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	8d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $128,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2025-11-20
   listed $128,000 Active 301-char remark

   Show marketing remark (301 chars)

   Singlewide sitting on a corner lot, close to shopping and entertainment for the whole family. 15 minutes away from I-45 and I-69. Nice property with lots of potential for improvements. Come see for your self and let your creativity fly. House has an extra room with a full bath that is half way built.

3. 2025-11-04
   historical
4. 2025-07-29
   price $128,000
5. 2024-12-21
   price $145,000
6. 2024-08-21
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $432 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,342 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,911/yr (+$159/mo · 442.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$432
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $4,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $5,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This singlewide mobile home requires moderate renovations, focusing on exterior siding, landscaping, and interior painting to significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Severe peeling and weathering
• Major Landscaping — Sparse and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Improved landscaping increases curb appeal and property value
• Both Exterior siding repair — Repairing peeling siding improves appearance and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Severe peeling and weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Sparse and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improved landscaping increases curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Exterior siding repair — Repairing peeling siding improves appearance and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Listed $128,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $128,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-21 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-21 Listed $150,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $432 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.