200 Fircrest Dr · Carlsborg, WA 98382

$196,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1989 $138/sqft · 15% above area Est $171k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1989 double-wide manufactured home nestled toward the back of the Parkwood Community near walking trails. New roof in 2024! This well-maintained home features 2 bedrooms plus a den, 2 baths, spacious kitchen, and a separate laundry room. Kitchen has plenty of countertops, cupboards, a walk in pantry and instant hot water at the kitchen sink! Recent interior painting, and carpet cleaning make this home move in ready! Garage has shelving and a garage door opener. Enjoy comfortable living in a quiet area of the park close to greenbelts and outdoor space. Easy access to US-101 and downtown Sequim!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Instant hot water
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• NEW ROOF
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• INSTANT HOT WATER
• RECENT INTERIOR PAINTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $196k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.4% in Carlsborg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#493 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Sequim School District (town): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #64 of 291 in WA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greywolf Elementary School (524 students, 50% FRL); Sequim Middle School (568 students, 52% FRL); Sequim Senior High (794 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 605 active listings in the ZIP; 166 units permitted in Clallam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clallam County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $196k implies a 228% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,605 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.74%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,544
• List price: $196,500
• Delta: 15.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Fircrest Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,426 (0%)	0mo	$190,000	$133	95
410 Parkwood Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-2%)	9mo	$215,000	$153	80
391 Parkwood	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,558 (+9%)	1mo	$235,000	$151	78
42 Hayden Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+1%)	8mo	$167,500	$117	78
20 Eds Pl	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,507 (+6%)	1mo	$166,000	$110	77
151 Parkwood Blvd	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	6mo	$161,300	$120	74
20 Brett Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,286 (-10%)	7mo	$156,000	$121	68
120 Fircrest Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (+13%)	5mo	$186,500	$115	64
400 Gupster #2	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	10mo	$120,000	$80	61
30 Marjory	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,228 (-14%)	6mo	$196,000	$160	60
141 Lavender Ridge Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,562 (+10%)	2mo	$492,500	$315	51
220 Carlsborg Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,555 (+9%)	6mo	$399,999	$257	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,362
• Equity at exit: $29,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $27,173
• Equity at exit: $16,990

Cash invested: $55,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98382

• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,090 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,030
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,658/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,583

Max offer price $196,500

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $512	-5% $456	+0% $401	+5% $345	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $235	-5% $318	+0% $401	+5% $483	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $500	-0.5pp $451	base $401	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,125
• Closing costs: $5,895
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-30
   listed $196,500 Active 609-char remark

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   Charming 1989 double-wide manufactured home nestled toward the back of the Parkwood Community near walking trails. New roof in 2024! This well-maintained home features 2 bedrooms plus a den, 2 baths, spacious kitchen, and a separate laundry room. Kitchen has plenty of countertops, cupboards, a walk in pantry and instant hot water at the kitchen sink! Recent interior painting, and carpet cleaning make this home move in ready! Garage has shelving and a garage door opener. Enjoy comfortable living in a quiet area of the park close to greenbelts and outdoor space. Easy access to US-101 and downtown Sequim!

2. 2026-03-30
   listed $196,500 Active

   Show marketing remark (609 chars)

   Charming 1989 double-wide manufactured home nestled toward the back of the Parkwood Community near walking trails. New roof in 2024! This well-maintained home features 2 bedrooms plus a den, 2 baths, spacious kitchen, and a separate laundry room. Kitchen has plenty of countertops, cupboards, a walk in pantry and instant hot water at the kitchen sink! Recent interior painting, and carpet cleaning make this home move in ready! Garage has shelving and a garage door opener. Enjoy comfortable living in a quiet area of the park close to greenbelts and outdoor space. Easy access to US-101 and downtown Sequim!

3. 2015-07-22
   soldstatus $59,900

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   Bright & sunny 2 BR, den, 2 BA 1426 sq ft home with garage in Parkwood - ready to move in to - living room, great kitchen with walk in pantry, dining room, newer roof (4-2010), private backyard backs up to greenbelt. Parkwood is a great age 55+ community - fee includes water, septic, clubhouse w/ indoor spa, sauna, library, kitchen, big screen tv, billiards, table tennis, garden w/ w Check out www. parkwoodcommunity.com. See why Parkwood is a great place to live.

4. 2015-07-22
   soldstatus $59,900 475-char remark

   Show marketing remark (475 chars)

   Bright & sunny 2 BR, den, 2 BA 1426 sq ft home with garage in Parkwood - ready to move in to - living room, great kitchen with walk in pantry, dining room, newer roof (4-2010), private backyard backs up to greenbelt. Parkwood is a great age 55+ community - fee includes water, septic, clubhouse w/ indoor spa, sauna, library, kitchen, big screen tv, billiards, table tennis, garden w/ w Check out www. parkwoodcommunity.com. See why Parkwood is a great place to live.

5. 2014-07-28
   listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,926 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$268/yr (+$22/mo · 16.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,007
• − Property taxes: −$1,658
• − Insurance: −$982
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − Depreciation: −$5,716
• Taxable income: $1,703
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$409
• After-tax cash flow: $4,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sequim School District
• NCES district ID: 5307830
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,969
• Composite: 52.77/100
• National rank: #3312
• State rank: #64 of 291 in WA

Livability — Carlsborg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #20503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsborg, WA
• County: Clallam County · 31,052 people
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,052
• Household income: $74,189
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 666.0

Population outlook (Clallam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,817 people
• By 2030: 78,177 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 79,795 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 80,890 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 83,933 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 82,141 · +6.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clallam

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 52.6% · R 44.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+3.4 2016: R+1.6 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.89%
• Current HPI: 181.4372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port Angeles, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+181.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $196,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $196,500 OLS
• 2015-07-22 Sold (MLS) $59,900 OLS
• 2015-07-22 Sold (MLS) $59,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-28 Listed $69,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,658 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.