5854 Havana Mist Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$363,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,637 sqft · Land · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Village Builders Eventide Collection home in Sunterra! The "Santo" with Elevation "J" in Sunterra! This new two-story home is host to an inviting open-concept layout on the first floor, featuring access to a covered patio for optimal entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner’s suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar Homes; Full ownership
• HOA & community: Community managed by PMG; Annual association fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Single-family design (2,637 total building area); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot setting; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (15x12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13x13); First-floor bedroom (10x11); Second-floor bedrooms (11x11, 11x14, 12x13)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Game room on the second floor; Family room on the first floor; Formal dining room on the first floor

🏗️ New construction. The $363,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $384,273.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $364k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $316,681 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.33%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,273
• List price: $363,990
• Delta: -5.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-64,099
• Equity at exit: $57,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-82,421
• Equity at exit: $33,225

Cash invested: $107,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,015
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,016

Max offer price $384,273

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $228	+0% $119	+5% $10	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-6	+0% $119	+5% $244	+10% $369
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $217	base $119	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,068
• Closing costs: $11,528
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.37mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.39mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	0.39mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.48mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	0.49mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.60mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	0.76mi
3013 Pearl Coastline Ln Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,995	$1.61	26d	1	0.77mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	26d	1	0.81mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	26d	1	0.83mi
3025 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2480	$3,798	$1.53	6d	1	0.84mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	0.85mi
3060 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	6.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	26d	1	0.88mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	0.98mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	5d	1	1.00mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	23d	1	1.00mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	1.04mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	14d	1	1.16mi
5835 Big Bluestem Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2890	$2,406	$0.83	45d	1	1.17mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.19mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.22mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.22mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.22mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	0d	17	1.27mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,599	$1.21	0d	1	1.41mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 502-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   price $363,990 502-char remark
3. 2026-05-05
   price $329,890 502-char remark
4. 2026-05-05
   listed $363,990 Active 502-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,661 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,369/yr (+$447/mo · 415.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$1,921
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,040
• − Management: −$3,040
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$11,179
• Taxable loss: −$5,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,247
• After-tax cash flow: $2,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $363,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $329,890 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $363,990 HARMLS