956 Middle Rd Unit 5A · Oswego, NY 13126

$19,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 102 Days on market

Built 1968 $23/sqft · 80% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

CASH ONLY SALE - NO TITLE. This 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home, located in the Hilltop Trailer Park in Scriba, NY, has had some recent interior updates. Complete with a fireplace, this home has newer tubs/vanities, some updated flooring and fresh paint throughout. The exterior needs some maintenance and cleaning. The park owners require an application approval before allowing a new tenant, and the lot rent is $550 monthly.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Newer tubs
• Updated flooring

Tags

• INTERIOR UPDATES
• FIREPLACE
• NEWER TUBS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $19,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$93,549) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $19k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 71.8% vs local median 8.8% in Oswego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in NY, #4,189 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Oswego City School District (town): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #465 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.2%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $428 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $17,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 71.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 234.02%
• DSCR: 11.41
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,549
• List price: $19,000
• Delta: -79.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
956 Middle Rd Unit 9W	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	780 (-7%)	9mo	$44,999	$58	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.43×
• Total profit: $71,439
• Equity at exit: $3,471

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 35.49×
• Total profit: $183,497
• Equity at exit: $2,761

Cash invested: $5,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13126

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,479 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $1,037

Break-even live

Break-even rent $166

Max offer price $19,000

Occupancy floor 25%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,750
• Closing costs: $570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $19,000 Pending 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $19,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $19,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $19,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $19,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-02-23
   listed $22,500 Active 424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (424 chars)

   CASH ONLY SALE - NO TITLE. This 2 bedroom 2 bath mobile home, located in the Hilltop Trailer Park in Scriba, NY, has had some recent interior updates. Complete with a fireplace, this home has newer tubs/vanities, some updated flooring and fresh paint throughout. The exterior needs some maintenance and cleaning. The park owners require an application approval before allowing a new tenant, and the lot rent is $550 monthly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,064
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$95
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$553
• Taxable income: $12,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,100
• After-tax cash flow: $9,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oswego City School District
• NCES district ID: 3622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,835
• Composite: 38.2/100
• National rank: #4257
• State rank: #465 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oswego

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4189

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oswego County · 36,495 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,346
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 19.18%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $22,500 CNYIS