Pinehollow Plan · Baytown, TX 77521

$237,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 625 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $237,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.3% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1121 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 625 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,431 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 625 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,490
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -9.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9203 Burch Eagle Ct	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,656 (0%)	0mo	$219,990	$133	70
6307 Waterlily Haven Way	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,709 (+3%)	2mo	$264,990	$155	53
9214 Robin Sound Ct	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,868 (+13%)	1mo	$263,990	$141	48
9223 Robin Sound Ct	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,868 (+13%)	0mo	$256,990	$138	48
6335 Pelly Pl	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-12%)	0mo	$217,990	$150	41
6331 Pelly Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-12%)	1mo	$235,990	$162	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-53,620
• Equity at exit: $39,138

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-69,553
• Equity at exit: $22,695

Cash invested: $73,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 52 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.4 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $251,990 ($154/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1121
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,377
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,937/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,296

Max offer price $244,555

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $57	-5% $-33	+0% $-124	+5% $-215	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-208	+0% $-124	+5% $-39	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-57	base $-124	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,622
• Closing costs: $7,875
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6026 Starling Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,995	$1.37	10d	1	1.04mi
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,965	$1.19	7d	1	1.07mi
5818 Starling Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2039	$2,295	$1.13	50d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $237,990 Active 625 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $237,990 Active 624 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $237,990 Active 623 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $237,990 Active 622 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $237,990 Active 621 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $237,990 Active 619 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $237,990 Active 618 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $237,990 Active 617 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $237,990 Active 616 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $237,990 Active 615 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $237,990 Active 614 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $237,990 Active 613 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $237,990 Active 612 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $237,990 Active 611 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $237,990 Active 610 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $237,990 Active 609 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $237,990 Active 608 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $237,990 Active 607 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $237,990 Active 606 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $237,990 Active 605 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $237,990 Active 604 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $237,990 Active 603 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $237,990 Active 602 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $237,990 Active 601 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $237,990 Active 600 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $237,990 Active 599 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $237,990 Active 598 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $237,990 Active 597 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $237,990 Active 596 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $237,990 Active 595 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $237,990 Active 594 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $237,990 Active 593 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $237,990 Active 592 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $237,990 Active 591 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 590 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 589 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    price $237,990 Active 588 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $236,990 Active 588 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $236,990 Active 587 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $236,990 Active 586 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $236,990 Active 585 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $236,990 Active 584 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $236,990 Active 583 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $236,990 Active 582 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $236,990 Active 581 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $236,990 Active 580 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $236,990 Active 579 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    pricedays on market $236,990 Active 578 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $238,990 Active 577 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $238,990 Active 576 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,704
• − Property taxes: −$3,937
• − Insurance: −$1,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − Depreciation: −$7,636
• Taxable loss: −$6,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-41/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a spacious floor plan and modern amenities. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value-adding improvements to enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Victoria Walker El F TX #1,462/4,322 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle Highlands J H F TX #595/1,662 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Impact Early College H S C TX #333/1,632 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-21 Listed $264,990 Zillow