Pinehollow Plan · Baytown, TX 77521

$252,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 533 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $252,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,826.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 791 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 533 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,646 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 533 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,826
• List price: $252,990
• Delta: -14.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9015 Cedar Crescent Dr	0.89mi	4/2.0	1,682 (+2%)	4mo	$249,990	$149	59
9010 Bay Lodge Ln	0.92mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,682 (+2%)	2mo	$264,210	$157	56
6215 Park Landing Ln	0.85mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,651 (-0%)	9mo	$386,419	$234	52
9011 Bay Lodge Ln	0.94mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-10%)	0mo	$249,990	$167	44
6227 Park Landing Dr	0.82mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,801 (+9%)	6mo	$402,668	$224	41
9018 Bay Lodge Ln	0.92mi	4/2.0	1,949 (+18%)	1mo	$302,150	$155	39
6202 Bayou Birch Ln	0.86mi	4/2.0	1,949 (+18%)	4mo	$314,260	$161	37
9010 Cedar Crescent Dr	0.88mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-10%)	9mo	$275,570	$184	36
9007 Cedar Crescent Dr	0.90mi	4/2.0	1,949 (+18%)	9mo	$289,190	$148	33
9022 Cedar Crescent Dr	0.87mi	4/2.0	1,949 (+18%)	9mo	$301,390	$155	32
9014 Bay Lodge Ln	0.93mi	4/3.0	1,905 (+15%)	8mo	$277,500	$146	29
9018 Cedar Crescent Dr	0.87mi	4/3.0	1,905 (+15%)	9mo	$291,800	$153	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-71,767
• Equity at exit: $43,959

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-102,084
• Equity at exit: $25,491

Cash invested: $82,551 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.3 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,490 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 494 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 791
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,422/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,579

Max offer price $247,658

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-224	+0% $-326	+5% $-428	+10% $-530
Rent	-10% $-497	-5% $-412	+0% $-326	+5% $-240	+10% $-155
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-251	base $-326	+0.5pp $-402	+1.0pp $-480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,706
• Closing costs: $8,845
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,125	$1.28	4d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $252,990 Active 533 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $252,990 Active 531 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $252,990 Active 530 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $252,990 Active 529 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $252,990 Active 528 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $252,990 Active 525 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $252,990 Active 523 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $252,990 Active 522 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $252,990 Active 520 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $252,990 Active 518 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $252,990 Active 517 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $252,990 Active 516 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $252,990 Active 515 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $252,990 Active 514 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $252,990 Active 512 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $252,990 Active 511 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $252,990 Active 510 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $252,990 Active 509 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $262,990 Active 508 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 507 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 506 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $262,990 Active 505 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $262,990 Active 504 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 503 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    price $262,990 Active 501 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $272,990 Active 501 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $272,990 Active 500 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $272,990 Active 499 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $272,990 Active 498 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $272,990 Active 497 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $272,990 Active 496 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $272,990 Active 495 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $272,990 Active 494 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $272,990 Active 493 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $272,990 Active 492 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $272,990 Active 491 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $272,990 Active 490 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $272,990 Active 488 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $264,990 Active 486 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $264,990 Active 485 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $264,990 Active 482 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $264,990 Active 481 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $264,990 Active 480 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $264,990 Active 479 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $264,990 Active 477 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $264,990 Active 473 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 471 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 468 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 467 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 466 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,515
• − Property taxes: −$4,422
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$8,577
• Taxable loss: −$9,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a spacious floor plan and modern amenities. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value-adding improvements to enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Victoria Walker El F TX #1,462/4,322 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle Highlands J H F TX #595/1,662 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Impact Early College H S C TX #333/1,632 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-21 Listed $264,990 Zillow