1305-07 W 9th St · Erie, PA 16502

$183,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1913 4,256 sqft lot Est $129k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Well-maintained and spacious 2,800 sq. ft. duplex located on a residential street with surrounding single-family homes. Built in 1913, this versatile property offers flexibility for investors, owner-occupants, or buyers looking for the potential to convert it into a single-family residence, subject to local zoning and municipal approval. The property features beautiful landscaping, a large covered front porch, a huge attic with potential for additional finished living space, and a detached one-car garage. Inside, you'll find generous room sizes and classic character throughout. Conveniently located near parks, schools, shopping, and other local amenities. A great opportunity with multiple p

Key facts

• Huge attic
• 4,256 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• HUGE ATTIC
• DETACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Duplex; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Paved private road frontage (private road) with private maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air; Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Gas fireplaces (2); Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $183k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,525/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1044% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $183k implies a 298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $183,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.08%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,800
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1051-1053 W 9th St	0.31mi	5/2.0 (+1)	3,036 (+8%)	9mo	$137,000	$45	59
731 W 10th St	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,604 (-7%)	9mo	$160,000	$61	50
707 W 10th St	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,490 (-11%)	7mo	$115,000	$46	43
618-620 Plum St	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,470 (-12%)	12mo	$99,900	$40	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $16,761
• Equity at exit: $27,286

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $74,255
• Equity at exit: $15,822

Cash invested: $51,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$960
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,754/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $183,000

Occupancy floor 66%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,526
Total (2 units)			$2,525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,750
• Closing costs: $5,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	43d	1	0.90mi
2702 Raspberry St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,200	$0.60	43d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $183,000 Active
2. 1983-09-09
   soldstatus $46,000
3. 1977-06-13
   soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,754 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,823 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,251
• − Property taxes: −$2,754
• − Insurance: −$915
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$5,324
• Taxable income: $6,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,490
• After-tax cash flow: $7,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+335.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $183,000 GEBOR
• 1983-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1977-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,754 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.