5640 S Masterson Ave · Tucson, AZ 85706

$120,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 1970 7,492 sqft lot $100/sqft · 36% below area Est $188k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home situated on a generously sized lot. The property is fully fenced, offering added privacy and plenty of outdoor space for a variety of uses. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Generously sized lot
• Outdoor space

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Sunnyside Unified District (4407) (urban): math 9% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #233 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $120k implies a 353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.69%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,787
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -36.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3348 E Holladay St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-12%)	4mo	$240,000	$227	67
3240 E Milton Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (-15%)	11mo	$195,000	$190	50
3821 E Mibbie Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+4%)	12mo	$190,000	$152	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $14,717
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $45,043
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85706

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $381/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $900

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5405 S Masterson Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,600	$1.49	2d	1	0.28mi
5405 S Masterson Ave #1 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1076	$1,600	$1.49	3d	1	0.28mi
2755 E Liverpool Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	14d	1	0.63mi
5515 S Forgeus Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,415	$1.91	1d	37	0.70mi
2602 E Walnut St Unit 9 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,300	$1.06	43d	1	0.89mi
5625 S Irving Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1322	$1,900	$1.44	43d	1	0.98mi
4069 E Market St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,875	$1.41	23d	1	1.03mi
4167 E Market St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1114	$2,100	$1.89	43d	1	1.17mi
4184 E Market St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,605	$1.59	23d	1	1.18mi
6288 S Flowing Water Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	17d	1	1.26mi
1711 E Canada St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1183	$1,800	$1.52	14d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    status Active 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home situated on a generously sized lot. The property is fully fenced, offering added privacy and plenty of outdoor space for a variety of uses. Being sold as-is.

17. 2026-05-03
    status Pending 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home situated on a generously sized lot. The property is fully fenced, offering added privacy and plenty of outdoor space for a variety of uses. Being sold as-is.

18. 2026-04-06
    listed $120,000 Active 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home situated on a generously sized lot. The property is fully fenced, offering added privacy and plenty of outdoor space for a variety of uses. Being sold as-is.

19. 1996-05-17
    soldstatus $26,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $381 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $792 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 108.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$381
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $5,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sunnyside Unified District (4407)
• NCES district ID: 0408170
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $34,365
• Composite: 9.76/100
• National rank: #9827
• State rank: #233 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,236
• Household income: $50,248
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1926.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 36% White 10% Native American 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 79%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.59%
• Current HPI: 376.8462
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+352.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-03 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-06 Listed $120,000 MLSSAZ
• 1996-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $381 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.