13209 Keefer Dr · Austin, TX 78652

$419,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,251 sqft · SingleFamily · 117 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $187/sqft · at area comps Est $424k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 13209 Keefer Drive, a beautiful new construction home located in Manchaca, TX. This two-story residence features 2,251 square feet of living space designed with a spacious layout that separates the active social spaces on the first floor from the quiet sleeping quarters on the second level.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Front porch
• Dining area

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS FOYER
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-796 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (36.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,641 (36.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.12%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,706
• List price: $419,990
• Delta: -0.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13214 Stabler Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-1%)	0mo	$419,990	$188	97
13207 Stabler Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-1%)	3mo	$416,990	$187	94
13106 Geary Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-1%)	5mo	$410,990	$184	91
13111 Geary Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-1%)	5mo	$415,990	$186	90
13116 Geary Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (0%)	5mo	$424,990	$189	85
13115 Geary Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (0%)	5mo	$419,990	$187	84
13205 Stabler Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+8%)	2mo	$429,990	$177	76
13201 Stabler Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+8%)	5mo	$449,990	$184	74
13108 Geary Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+8%)	5mo	$424,990	$174	73
13113 Geary Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+8%)	6mo	$434,990	$178	72
205 Tangled Brush Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,110 (-6%)	4mo	$449,000	$213	56
12617 Iron Bridge Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,320 (+3%)	5mo	$465,000	$200	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-118,713
• Equity at exit: $62,622

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-168,491
• Equity at exit: $36,313

Cash invested: $117,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $404,990 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 52 d
• This list price: 62% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78652

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,666 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$525 /mo · $6,300/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-796

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,674

Max offer price $304,809

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-506	-5% $-651	+0% $-796	+5% $-941	+10% $-1,086
Rent	-10% $-1,007	-5% $-901	+0% $-796	+5% $-691	+10% $-585
Rate	-1.0pp $-584	-0.5pp $-689	base $-796	+0.5pp $-905	+1.0pp $-1,016

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,998
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	28d	1	0.28mi
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	10d	1	0.28mi
12901 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2429	$2,649	$1.09	40d	1	0.32mi
806 Dayton Dr Unit 110 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,395	$1.28	18d	1	0.34mi
12803 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,450	$1.41	64d	1	0.36mi
13207 Easley Dr Unit 1039127P Manchaca, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$7,254	$4.04	26d	1	0.44mi
12613 Twisted Root Dr Unit 1 Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.5	3211	$2,800	$0.87	12d	1	0.65mi
12407 Altamira St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2501	$2,895	$1.16	16d	1	0.77mi
601 Puerta Vallarta Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,490	$1.35	93d	1	0.90mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,900	$1.22	73d	1	1.04mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	53d	1	1.04mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	39d	1	1.04mi
12213 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.5	2739	$3,100	$1.13	12d	1	1.05mi
12000 S Interstate 35 Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1294	$1,997	$1.54	10d	43	1.18mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13209 Keefer Dr, Manchaca TX 78652Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $434,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage parking spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Spec new-construction plan named Dexter
• Exterior features: 2,251 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: 3 bedrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $419,990 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $419,990 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $419,990 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $419,990 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $419,990 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $419,990 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $419,990 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $419,990 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $419,990 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $419,990 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $419,990 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $419,990 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $419,990 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $419,990 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $419,990 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $419,990 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $419,990 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $419,990 Active 93 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $417,990 Active 92 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $417,990 Active 91 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $417,990 Active 90 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $417,990 Active 89 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $417,990 Active 88 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $417,990 Active 87 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $417,990 Active 85 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $417,990 Active 84 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $417,990 Active 83 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $417,990 Active 81 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $417,990 Active 80 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $417,990 Active 79 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $417,990 Active 78 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $417,990 Active 77 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $417,990 Active 76 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $417,990 Active 74 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $417,990 Active 72 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $417,990 Active 70 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $417,990 Active 69 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $417,990 Active 66 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $417,990 Active 65 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $417,990 Active 64 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $417,990 Active 63 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $417,990 Active 61 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $417,990 Active 57 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $417,990 Active 56 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $417,990 Active 55 DOM
46. 2026-06-05
    days on market $417,990 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $417,990 Active 51 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $417,990 Active 50 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $434,990 Active 49 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $434,990 Active 48 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,526
• − Property taxes: −$6,300
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$17,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,144
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This beautiful new construction home in Manchaca, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious layout and modern features, making it an ideal investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,287
• Household income: $133,368
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.32%
• Current HPI: 233.9814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13209 Keefer Dr, Manchaca TX 78652Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $434,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage parking spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Spec new-construction plan named Dexter
• Exterior features: 2,251 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: 3 bedrooms