2305 Spence St · Houston, TX 77093

$79,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1940 7,474 sqft lot $43/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,474 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-family style (one dwelling)
• Construction: Built in 1940; Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 14); Other bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $950 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,187/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1815% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.93%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,000
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -69.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2301 King St	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,912 (+2%)	5mo	$210,000	$110	80
2513 Melbourne St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+2%)	3mo	$229,900	$120	73
3202 Melbourne St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-3%)	1mo	$179,000	$98	66
6804 Schuller Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,968 (+5%)	11mo	$235,000	$119	57
1614 Euel St	0.70mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,791 (-5%)	9mo	$360,000	$201	41
2516 Avenue Of Oaks St	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,723 (-8%)	9mo	$349,900	$203	41
2401 Mcdaniel St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,077 (+11%)	6mo	$325,000	$156	40
5722 Horton St	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,677 (-11%)	4mo	$289,000	$172	39
3504 Caplin St Unit C	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,665 (-11%)	3mo	$329,900	$198	37
3504 Caplin St Unit D	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,665 (-11%)	4mo	$329,900	$198	36
1616 Euel St	0.70mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,724 (-8%)	9mo	$360,000	$209	35
5719 Elysian St	0.70mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,724 (-8%)	14mo	$360,000	$209	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $52,902
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.57×
• Total profit: $147,011
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77093

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,911/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $950

Break-even live

Break-even rent $985

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2623 Huntington Creek Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,299	$1.48	24d	1	0.82mi
1416 Fairbanks St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1888	$1,899	$1.01	7d	1	0.84mi
3810 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,599	$1.23	15d	1	0.89mi
3812 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,545	$1.19	5d	1	0.90mi
5124 Gold St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,895	$1.15	43d	1	0.93mi
4030 Reid St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	43d	1	1.13mi
8320 Curry Rd Unit 1391267P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$5,134	$3.31	1d	1	1.17mi
8320 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1558	$8,950	$5.74	22d	1	1.17mi
8318 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,299	$1.48	43d	1	1.17mi
8322 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$2,500	$1.56	43d	1	1.18mi
8326 Curry Rd Unit 1228882P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,878	$1.78	7d	1	1.19mi
3208 Bostic St Unit 1254540P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$3,691	$2.30	2d	1	1.21mi
1524 Evelyn St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,800	$1.55	43d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $79,900 Active 184-char remark
2. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,911 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,911 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$3,911
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,100
• − Management: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $10,935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,624
• After-tax cash flow: $8,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,407
• Household income: $46,766
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% Black 11% White 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 70%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.53%
• Current HPI: 277.4914
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,911 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.