145 Millennial Ct · Grayson, GA 30045

$375,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,087 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2023 0.51 ac lot $180/sqft · 17% below area Est $440k · 15% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Potential Short Sale — Priced to Sell !!! Newer construction home built in 2023 featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and an open-concept floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living. The spacious kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating a bright and functional layout. Located on a half-acre lot in an established community.

Key facts

• Half-acre lot
• Spacious kitchen
• Newer construction

Tags

• NEWER CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• HALF-ACRE LOT
• ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-446 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Grayson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#42 in GA, #4,721 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,870 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,228
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -14.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1391 Sutters Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,900 (-9%)	12mo	$426,000	$224	60
1690 Mcconnell Rd	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,146 (+3%)	16mo	$725,000	$338	52
216 Brackin Trce	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,316 (+11%)	3mo	$485,000	$209	47
1419 Gates Mill Walk	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,253 (+8%)	11mo	$400,000	$178	46
440 Cottonpatch Rd	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,137 (+2%)	12mo	$355,000	$166	45
1231 Creekwood Cv	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,120 (+2%)	21mo	$339,000	$160	44
1448 Gates Mill Walk	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-9%)	16mo	$420,000	$222	42
328 Ash Trace Ln	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,923 (-8%)	20mo	$340,000	$177	41
1407 Mill Glenn Ct	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,300 (+10%)	24mo	$423,000	$184	39
85 Annie Chandler Trl	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,778 (-15%)	4mo	$333,000	$187	36
330 Cottonpatch Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,805 (-14%)	19mo	$365,000	$202	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-97,167
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-152,145
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30045

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,759 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,522/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,323

Max offer price $296,288

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1580 Willow River Run Grayson, GA	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,941	$1.17	5d	1	0.62mi
550 Webb Gin House Rd Lawrenceville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1105	$2,545	$2.30	3d	27	0.76mi
1655 Grayson Hwy Grayson, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,520	$2.47	2d	16	0.76mi
1574 Gin Blossom Cir Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	3.5	2938	$2,700	$0.92	19d	1	0.79mi
1525 Grayson Hwy Grayson, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1143	$2,261	$1.98	1d	17	0.80mi
211 Clark Lake Ln Grayson, GA	5.0	3.0	2700	$7,000	$2.59	24d	1	0.84mi
1121 Ludwick Way Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,305	$1.10	44d	1	0.88mi
209 Park Place Dr Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	2.5	1480	$1,849	$1.25	3d	1	0.94mi
70 Leighs Grove Way Grayson, GA	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,325	$1.27	5d	1	0.94mi
715 Clark Lake Estates Dr Grayson, GA	4.0	3.0	2500	$2,390	$0.96	5d	1	0.98mi
102 Park Place Dr Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,295	$1.59	18d	1	0.99mi
111 Park Place Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	3.0	1872	$2,281	$1.22	24d	1	0.99mi
1080 Chandler Ridge Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.0	2260	$3,050	$1.35	24d	1	0.99mi
660 Old Johnson Rd Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,100	$1.10	44d	1	1.00mi
429 Strickland Ct Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,850	$1.17	44d	1	1.02mi
1080 Rafington Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.0	2011	$4,300	$2.14	24d	1	1.04mi
1145 Brook Meadow Ct Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	19d	1	1.04mi
239 Ryston Way Lawrenceville, GA	5.0	4.0	2863	$3,200	$1.12	5d	1	1.05mi
1321 Timbercrest Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.0	1524	$2,050	$1.35	17d	1	1.11mi
1772 Dover Creek Ln Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	3.0	2630	$2,750	$1.05	5d	1	1.11mi
154 Leighs Grove Ct Grayson, GA	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,475	$1.70	44d	1	1.14mi
1572 Dover Creek Ln Grayson, GA	5.0	4.0	2863	$3,100	$1.08	44d	1	1.14mi
1612 Dover Creek Ln Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.5	2578	$2,700	$1.05	5d	1	1.18mi
1305 Little Hampton Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.5	1955	$2,225	$1.14	22d	1	1.23mi
1314 Little Hampton Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.5	1932	$2,305	$1.19	15d	1	1.25mi
402 Holiday Bluff Ln Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	3.0	2458	$3,320	$1.35	20d	1	1.26mi
980 Hilltop Ct Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.0	1536	$2,000	$1.30	24d	1	1.27mi
534 Quiet Cloud Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.5	2655	$3,290	$1.24	5d	1	1.33mi
1289 Avington Glen Dr Lawrenceville, GA	5.0	3.0	2737	$2,749	$1.00	3d	1	1.33mi
335 Grayson New Hope Rd Grayson, GA	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,600	$1.82	24d	1	1.35mi
1680 Station Bluff Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.5	2655	$3,070	$1.16	44d	1	1.36mi
2210 Grayfield Dr Grayson, GA	3.0	2.0	1623	$2,150	$1.32	44d	1	1.42mi
2419 Derrick Dr Grayson, GA	4.0	2.5–3.5	2771	$2,997	$1.08	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $375,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $375,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-02-17
    price $375,000
15. 2026-02-17
    price $375,000
16. 2026-02-17
    listed $375,000 New
17. 2026-02-17
    historical
18. 2026-02-17
    historical
19. 2026-02-17
    listed $375,000 Active
20. 2025-10-23
    price $440,000
21. 2025-10-23
    price $440,000
22. 2025-09-15
    listed $445,000 New
23. 2025-09-15
    listed $445,000 Active
24. 2025-08-28
    historical
25. 2025-08-28
    historical
26. 2025-07-17
    price $445,000
27. 2025-07-17
    price $445,000
28. 2025-06-28
    listed $485,000 Active
29. 2025-05-29
    historical
30. 2025-05-29
    listed $485,000 New
31. 2023-11-29
    soldstatus $460,000 Closed
32. 2023-11-14
    status Pending
33. 2023-11-03
    price $449,900
34. 2023-10-27
    price $455,900
35. 2023-10-04
    listed $469,900 Active
36. 2021-06-01
    soldstatus $47,000
37. 2006-04-20
    soldstatus $316,800
38. 2000-07-10
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,522 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,522 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,522
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,648
• − Management: −$2,648
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$12,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,882
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gwinnett County
• NCES district ID: 1302550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $62,416
• Composite: 36.5/100
• National rank: #4648
• State rank: #32 of 174 in GA

Livability — Grayson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #4721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gwinnett County · 952,346 people
• City population: 26,620
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 44,993
• Household income: $104,350
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 659.0

Population outlook (Gwinnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,106,028 people
• By 2030: 1,211,414 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 1,422,277 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 1,623,204 · +46.8%
• By 2075: 2,105,240 · +90.3%
• By 2100: 2,443,321 · +120.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% American 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Gwinnett

• 2024 margin: D (+16.5) · D 57.6% · R 41.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +26.8pp toward D · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: 16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.5 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+5.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.05%
• Current HPI: 228.0768
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1775.0% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $375,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $375,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $375,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $375,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $440,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $440,000 FMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $445,000 FMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $445,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $445,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $445,000 FMLS
• 2025-06-28 Listed $485,000 FMLS
• 2025-05-29 Coming Soon — FMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $485,000 GAMLS
• 2023-11-29 Sold (MLS) $460,000 FMLS
• 2023-11-14 Pending — FMLS
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $449,900 FMLS
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $455,900 FMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listed $469,900 FMLS
• 2021-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $316,800 Public Records
• 2000-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,522 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.