2404 S Highway 318 S · Lake View, AR 72366

$87,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,729 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

1.04 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy country living with a large lot and spacious brick home that affords a large carport with outbuildings for storage . This property offers scenic views of agriculture.

Key facts

• 1.04 acre lot
• Listed 88 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#506 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marvell School District (rural): math 14% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #243 of 245 in AR (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 94% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Phillips County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($605 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Phillips County population projected at -45% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,250 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.51%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $31,248
• Equity at exit: $32,974

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $81,764
• Equity at exit: $46,329

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72366

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,312/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $765

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2024-02-16
   soldstatus $77,000
2. 2023-11-20
   status Pending
3. 2023-10-05
   status Active
4. 2023-09-28
   price $87,500
5. 2023-07-24
   status Active
6. 2023-07-05
   status Pending
7. 2022-12-29
   listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$1,312
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $3,863
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$927
• After-tax cash flow: $4,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marvell School District
• NCES district ID: 0509510
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $30,534
• Composite: 13.79/100
• National rank: #14475
• State rank: #243 of 245 in AR

Livability — Lake View

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #26043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,637

Population outlook (Phillips County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,786 people
• By 2030: 14,028 · -11.1%
• By 2040: 11,019 · -30.2%
• By 2050: 8,684 · -45.0%
• By 2075: 5,074 · -67.9%
• By 2100: 3,053 · -80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 37% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Phillips

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 55.8% · R 42.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: 29.0pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.3 2016: D+26.8 2012: D+32.8 2008: D+29.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Current HPI: 94.2121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-18.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-20 Pending — EARA
• 2023-10-05 Relisted — EARA
• 2023-09-28 Price Changed $87,500 EARA
• 2023-07-24 Relisted — EARA
• 2023-07-05 Pending — EARA
• 2022-12-29 Listed $95,000 EARA

Property tax history

-31.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3 · -97.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.