434 Woodlake Ln · Flowood, MS 39047

$185,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1998 3,484 sqft lot Est $196k · 6% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Across the street from the big water of the reservoir, wonderful big water view from living room windows! Split plan, garage with door opener, new carpet, immaculate condition, very open plan, separate laundry room, fenced back yard with nice water view from patio, all brick, roof 3 years old, no stairs anywhere,

Key facts

• Corner lot
• No neighbors behind
• Open kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LARGE COVERED BACK DECK
• NO NEIGHBORS BEHIND
• OPEN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $225; Association covers accounting/legal and management; Community has curbs and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached concrete garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Townhouse (duplex); One level; Move-in ready; Corner lot; Waterfront view
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Deck; Rain gutters; Privacy wood fencing (full)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Free-standing electric range; Microwave; Water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Concrete
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace heating; Central air; Ceiling fan cooling; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Laminate countertops; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hook-ups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northshore Elementary (math 82% / reading 68%, grade A, #5 of 375 statewide, top 1%, 551 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 433 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,350
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Commonwealth Ave	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+1%)	3mo	$204,900	$171	61
139 Kings Ridge Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+8%)	13mo	$183,000	$143	52
233a Brendalwood Blvd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,185 (-0%)	13mo	$185,000	$156	44
190 Commonwealth Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,366 (+15%)	4mo	$225,000	$165	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,497
• Equity at exit: $27,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $11,252
• Equity at exit: $16,039

Cash invested: $51,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,970 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$973
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,833/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $185,500

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,375
• Closing costs: $5,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 Lake Barnett Dr Brandon, MS	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,500	$2.16	13d	1	0.05mi
839 Harbor Bend Dr Unit 1 Brandon, MS	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,295	$1.29	43d	1	0.25mi
833 Harbor Bend Dr Unit 1 Brandon, MS	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.25mi
352 Brendalwood Cv Brandon, MS	2.0	1.5	1248	$1,157	$0.93	43d	1	0.85mi
111 Lakeshore Dr Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,992	$2.04	13d	8	0.91mi
500 Avalon Way Brandon, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1287	$1,800	$1.40	13d	6	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $185,500 Active
3. 2009-08-17
   soldstatus 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   Across the street from the big water of the reservoir, wonderful big water view from living room windows! Split plan, garage with door opener, new carpet, immaculate condition, very open plan, separate laundry room, fenced back yard with nice water view from patio, all brick, roof 3 years old, no stairs anywhere,

4. 2009-03-16
   listed $129,900 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   Across the street from the big water of the reservoir, wonderful big water view from living room windows! Split plan, garage with door opener, new carpet, immaculate condition, very open plan, separate laundry room, fenced back yard with nice water view from patio, all brick, roof 3 years old, no stairs anywhere,

5. 2006-07-17
   soldstatus
6. 2006-07-06
   soldstatus 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Hard to find home with great water view of Reservoir. 2/2 split plan with open living area that's spacious & comfy. Pretty ceramic tile floors in living, kitchen, den, dining & foyer. Well-kept.

7. 2006-05-03
   listed $124,000 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Hard to find home with great water view of Reservoir. 2/2 split plan with open living area that's spacious & comfy. Pretty ceramic tile floors in living, kitchen, den, dining & foyer. Well-kept.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,391
• − Property taxes: −$1,833
• − Insurance: −$928
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,396
• Taxable income: $409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$98
• After-tax cash flow: $3,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+49.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-13 Listed $185,500 MLSU
• 2009-08-17 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2009-03-16 Listed $129,900 MLSU
• 2006-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-06 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-05-03 Listed $124,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+23.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,833 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.