2966 Sweet Gum Loop · Blaine, WA 98230

$1,575,000

12 bd · 14.0 ba · 5,616 sqft · MultiFamily · 149 Days on market

Built 2026 0.46 ac lot $280/sqft · 6% above area Est $1490k · 6% over $140/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This presale 4-plex at The Ridge presents a rare opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants seeking flexibility, location, and long-term value. Each unit includes a private single-car garage and a well-designed layout with the main living, dining, kitchen, and powder room located on the second level, creating an open and light-filled living space. Kitchens feature quartz countertops and durable luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas. Each unit offers a primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath, along with two additional guest bedrooms and a full bathroom, providing comfortable and functional living. Whether expanding an existing investment portf

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Well-designed layout
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIVATE SINGLE-CAR GARAGE
• WELL-DESIGNED LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/3.5-bath units multifamily listed at $1.57M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-654/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.20M (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.06M (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.06M (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.1% in Blaine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#125 in WA, #2,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,646/mo this rent would consume 147% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 454% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $168k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $158k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$271k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $1,064,600 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.11%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,490,279
• List price: $1,575,000
• Delta: 5.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $692,610
• Equity at exit: $1,418,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $2,173,229
• Equity at exit: $3,059,879

Cash invested: $441,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 49.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,969 /mo · $23,625/yr
• Insurance: −$656
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,236
• Net cashflow: $-2,614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,955

Max offer price $1,196,731

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,526	-5% $-2,070	+0% $-2,614	+5% $-3,158	+10% $-3,703
Rent	-10% $-3,455	-5% $-3,035	+0% $-2,614	+5% $-2,194	+10% $-1,773
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,821	-0.5pp $-2,214	base $-2,614	+0.5pp $-3,022	+1.0pp $-3,437

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	3.5	$10,648
Total (4 units)			$10,646

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $393,750
• Closing costs: $47,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,575,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,575,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,575,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,575,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,575,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,575,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,575,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,575,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,575,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,575,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,575,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,575,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,575,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,575,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,575,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-01-20
    listed $1,575,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $127,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$88,224
• − Property taxes: −$23,625
• − Insurance: −$7,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,220
• − Management: −$10,220
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$45,818
• Taxable loss: −$59,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,379
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Blaine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #2491

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blaine, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $1,575,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid