Atlanta Plan · Ellenton, FL 34221

$331,400

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,870 (internal record); Address: 9032 Bay Leaf Dr, Parrish, FL 34219
• Financial info: List price $349,400

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Atlanta plan); Active listing
• Construction: Built as part of new construction inventory
• Exterior features: Property is a new construction plan (Atlanta plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open plan living area

🏗️ New construction. The $331,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $374,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $331k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $289,170 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $374,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8428 Sea Ray Run	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,870 (0%)	12mo	$369,900	$198	87
8444 Sea Ray Run	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,870 (0%)	11mo	$379,900	$203	87
8518 Sea Ray Run	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,870 (0%)	10mo	$369,900	$198	86
8520 Bella Mar Trl	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-3%)	10mo	$364,300	$200	79
8822 Bahama Mia Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,828 (-2%)	1mo	$362,000	$198	79
8544 Bella Mar Trl	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-3%)	10mo	$325,900	$179	77
8548 Bella Mar Trl	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+4%)	10mo	$334,150	$173	76
9432 Bella Mar Trl	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,045 (+9%)	1mo	$390,000	$191	68
8808 Clear View St	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,665 (-11%)	0mo	$334,000	$201	67
9009 Sandy Shores St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-11%)	2mo	$400,000	$241	64
9423 Bella Mar Trl	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,045 (+9%)	4mo	$415,000	$203	64
8814 Bahama Mia Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-11%)	1mo	$337,000	$202	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-88,154
• Equity at exit: $55,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-133,955
• Equity at exit: $32,337

Cash invested: $104,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,892 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,961
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$468 /mo · $5,610/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,272

Max offer price $330,562

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,500
• Closing costs: $11,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	16d	1	0.10mi
9276 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$4,250	$1.72	24d	1	0.14mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	10d	1	0.16mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	24d	1	0.16mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	24d	1	0.19mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	16d	1	0.33mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	2d	32	0.40mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	14d	1	0.42mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	21d	1	0.50mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	21d	1	0.50mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	24d	1	0.84mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	2d	24	0.84mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	0.96mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	1.14mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	10d	1	1.30mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	3d	1	1.30mi
8330 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2473	$2,900	$1.17	16d	1	1.31mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	24d	1	1.34mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	3d	1	1.37mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,405	$2.37	3d	50	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $331,400 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $331,400 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $331,400 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $331,400 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $331,400 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $331,400 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $331,400 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,400 Active 601 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,400 Active 600 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,400 Active 599 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,400 Active 595 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,400 Active 594 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,400 Active 593 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,400 Active 592 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,950
• − Property taxes: −$5,610
• − Insurance: −$1,870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,776
• − Management: −$2,776
• − Depreciation: −$10,880
• Taxable loss: −$10,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,439
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B