15300 Palm Dr #127 · Desert Hot Springs, CA 92240

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1998 3,920 sqft lot $180/sqft · at area comps Est $217k · at est. $329/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing home in the 55 plus community of Vista Montana! FEE LAND!! You own the land! Come see this beautifully maintained 3 bedroom home which offers 1248 square feet of living area, private fenced courtyard, covered patio and outstanding mountain view. There is carport parking for approximately 3 vehicles, a large shed for storage, large covered patio area. The newer roof and water heater are approximately 4 years new. The HVAC total system replacement, including furnace and compressor are also approximately 4 years new and dual pane windows for overall energy efficiency. The bathroom sinks and faucets are newer, ceiling fans as well. The kitchen and bathroom cabinets were painted and new hardware was added. The interior is well maintained with newer interior paint, newer vinyl flooring and carpeting throughout. There are vaulted ceilings and clerestory windows in the living room. The primary bedroom is completely separated from the remaining two other bedrooms. The Vista Montana community offers a large clubhouse for private and community events, a large resort style heated pool and spas and an additional second non heated pool. The pool area has been remodeled recently withy extensive patio brick around the pool. In additional there is a dog park, exericise room, sauna, billiard room and much more.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Carport parking
• Newer water heater

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED COURTYARD
• OUTSTANDING MOUNTAIN VIEW
• CARPORT PARKING
• LARGE SHED FOR STORAGE
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.0% in Desert Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,149 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 515 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,519/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,373
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 3.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15300 Palm Dr #30	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	3mo	$200,000	$160	90
15300 Palm Dr #45	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (+0%)	6mo	$170,000	$136	83
15300 Palm Dr #22	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (+2%)	5mo	$219,000	$172	83
15300 Palm Dr #138	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,323 (+6%)	3mo	$237,000	$179	82
15300 Palm Dr #161	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,333 (+7%)	1mo	$233,000	$175	81
15300 Palm Dr #119	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$220,000	$164	81
15300 Palm Dr #255	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+8%)	2mo	$203,500	$151	78
15300 Palm Dr #42	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,178 (-6%)	2mo	$230,000	$195	78
15300 Palm Dr #209	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,335 (+7%)	3mo	$161,000	$121	77
14777 Palm Dr #15	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+1%)	3mo	$180,000	$143	67
15300 Palm Dr #35	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+15%)	5mo	$105,000	$73	64
14777 Palm Dr #8	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	6mo	$229,000	$163	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,517
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,704
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92240

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 515
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$329
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,279

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15300 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,800	$1.92	44d	1	0.04mi
13987 El Cajon Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,600	$2.14	8d	1	0.77mi
13895 Luis Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	814	$1,800	$2.21	44d	1	0.77mi
15490 Avenida Rambla Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	44d	1	0.80mi
15490 Avenue Rambla Unit NA Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	24d	1	0.80mi
66629 Joseph Way Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,900	$2.42	24d	1	0.86mi
66590 Joseph Way Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	785	$2,295	$2.92	24d	1	0.89mi
13950 West Dr Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,600	$1.59	1d	1	0.94mi
13405 Ocotillo Rd Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$1,750	$2.03	2d	1	0.98mi
13244 El Cajon Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	4.0	0.5	1320	$3,200	$2.42	44d	1	1.10mi
13715 El Rio Ln Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,600	$1.97	8d	1	1.18mi
13322 El Rio Ln Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,750	$2.26	44d	1	1.30mi
66434 Estrella Ave Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	44d	1	1.40mi
66309 Desert View Ave Unit 1 Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	44d	1	1.45mi
66299 Desert View Ave Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	44d	1	1.45mi
66444 Desert View Ave Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1294	$2,275	$1.76	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $329 · $3,948/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-04-05
    listed $225,000 Active 1322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1322 chars)

    Amazing home in the 55 plus community of Vista Montana! FEE LAND!! You own the land! Come see this beautifully maintained 3 bedroom home which offers 1248 square feet of living area, private fenced courtyard, covered patio and outstanding mountain view. There is carport parking for approximately 3 vehicles, a large shed for storage, large covered patio area. The newer roof and water heater are approximately 4 years new. The HVAC total system replacement, including furnace and compressor are also approximately 4 years new and dual pane windows for overall energy efficiency. The bathroom sinks and faucets are newer, ceiling fans as well. The kitchen and bathroom cabinets were painted and new hardware was added. The interior is well maintained with newer interior paint, newer vinyl flooring and carpeting throughout. There are vaulted ceilings and clerestory windows in the living room. The primary bedroom is completely separated from the remaining two other bedrooms. The Vista Montana community offers a large clubhouse for private and community events, a large resort style heated pool and spas and an additional second non heated pool. The pool area has been remodeled recently withy extensive patio brick around the pool. In additional there is a dog park, exericise room, sauna, billiard room and much more.

16. 2026-01-08
    historical
17. 2025-12-06
    price $215,000
18. 2025-09-24
    price $219,900
19. 2025-04-21
    price $229,900
20. 2025-03-10
    price $250,000
21. 2025-01-16
    listed $265,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,370 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,370 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,418
• − Management: −$2,418
• − HOA: −$3,948
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$289
• After-tax cash flow: $2,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Desert Hot Springs

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1149
• US rank: #25774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Desert Hot Springs, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 41,615
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,615
• Household income: $54,023
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.10%
• Current HPI: 418.4691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Listed $225,000 TheMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $215,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $219,900 GPSMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $229,900 GPSMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $250,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listed $265,000 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,370 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.