3291 Forghun Ave SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$269,981

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2006 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely Single Family Palm Bay Home Ready for New Owner. * * Updated luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh interior paint, and split floor plan. * * Newer roof, HVAC, water heater, well pump & aerator, and hurricane shutters. * * Peaceful location. * * Neutral color patterns inside and out. * * Roadway approved for fresh paving and set to be completed soon. * * Do not wait to see this peaceful move in ready home!

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Split floor plan
• Natural light

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BAY WINDOWS
• HUGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,350 (other building area listed as 1,712); Lot size approximately 0.23 acres; Not a land lease property

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Faces west
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Pets allowed
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Owned water softener
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Storm shutters
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished (no built-in laundry listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-680/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 798 students, 52% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,621 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $144,908
• Equity at exit: $243,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $432,653
• Equity at exit: $524,514

Cash invested: $75,595 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,160/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,268

Max offer price $259,973

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,495
• Closing costs: $8,099
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3247 Halblum Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	1820	$2,516	$1.38	13d	1	0.21mi
3219 Hainsworth Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1219	$2,100	$1.72	14d	1	0.24mi
496 Vanguard St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,150	$1.29	23d	1	0.32mi
291 Foley St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,025	$1.10	13d	1	0.37mi
286 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,925	$1.05	14d	1	0.48mi
238 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	23d	1	0.53mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	23d	1	0.69mi
486 Dadeville St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,995	$1.09	14d	1	0.77mi
543 Reading St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,010	$1.10	21d	1	1.01mi
2785 Gabboys Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	23d	1	1.02mi
2749 Freehold Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,800	$1.30	23d	1	1.09mi
3270 Framingham Ave SW Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,400	$1.29	23d	1	1.13mi
2691 Tepee Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,040	$1.11	21d	1	1.32mi
160 Dailey St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1795	$2,275	$1.27	23d	1	1.37mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	23d	1	1.41mi
1063 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	1.41mi
1224 Dillard Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,336	$1.32	14d	1	1.46mi
590 Trymore Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,250	$1.20	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,981 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,981 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $269,981 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,160 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,160 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,123
• − Property taxes: −$3,160
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$5,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,284
• After-tax cash flow: $604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1761.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $269,981 SCMLS
• 2021-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-05 Sold (MLS) $215,000 SCMLS
• 2021-02-06 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2021-02-04 Listed $204,900 SCMLS
• 2021-02-01 Coming Soon $204,900 SCMLS
• 2015-03-27 Sold (MLS) $102,000 SCMLS
• 2015-02-11 Listed $95,000 SCMLS
• 2004-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,160 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.