8536 Kern Canyon Rd #184 · East Niles, CA 93306

$117,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1988 $94/sqft · 19% above area Est $99k · 19% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location Location — Corner Lot Excellence! Your Dream Home Awaits. Welcome to a rare find – a 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home nestled on a coveted corner lot in one of Bakersfield's premier communities. Thoughtfully designed inside and out to provide the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and style. The interior features bright and airy living spaces with dual-pane windows bringing in beautiful natural light to the open-concept living, dining, and kitchen airs. The cathedral ceiling living room features a ceiling fan and painted in chic Stonington Gray with white trim for a clean, modern feel. The stylish kitchen has ample counter space with a stainless steel stovetop insert in a dual-level kitchen counter island; fridge and oven included; separate dining room for family meals or intimate dinners. Wide plank flooring throughout the main living area exudes warmth and elegance. Both bedrooms are spacious and feature double closets for ample storage; primary suite has an en-suite bathroom with a large vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Main bathroom is freshly updated with new flooring, toilet, and shower head for modern comfort and a polished look. The outdoor features include a private fenced and spacious backyard with a distinguished circular patio area, perfect for gatherings or peaceful retreats. The front yard has a shaded sitting area under mature trees for your personal oasis. The front and private backyard connects through an existing wrought iron gate. Covered multi-car carport; off-street parking with room for multiple vehicles. Large storage shed tucked away but easily accessible. Located in one of Bakersfield’s finest parks offering pool, tennis courts, and recreation house with gym, pool tables, and TV room. Wide streets and on-site management for a peaceful living environment. All buyers must be qualified through the park.

Key facts

• Dual-pane windows
• Double closets
• Wide plank flooring

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• STAINLESS STEEL STOVETOP
• WIDE PLANK FLOORING
• DOUBLE CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,470 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.75%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,521
• List price: $117,000
• Delta: 18.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #146	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	8mo	$85,000	$68	94
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #93	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	2mo	$68,000	$54	90
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #44	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	6mo	$63,000	$47	82
8904 Eastwind Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	6mo	$285,000	$228	82
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #100	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	8mo	$105,000	$78	80
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #236	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	9mo	$58,000	$43	79
8500 Kern Canyon Rd #139	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	3mo	$74,000	$55	76
9220 Eastwind Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,196 (-4%)	9mo	$110,000	$92	75
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #150	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$93,000	$69	72
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #136	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,430 (+15%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	69
9305 Eastwind Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	6mo	$250,000	$186	65
9108 Eastwind Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	7mo	$245,000	$175	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $10,681
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $44,116
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Fortier St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	3d	1	0.39mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,005	$1.14	3d	1	0.98mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	44d	1	0.98mi
7000 College Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,480	$1.74	19d	1	0.99mi
7000 College Ave Unit 035 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,525	$1.80	14d	1	1.00mi
7000 College Ave Apt 168 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	957	$1,655	$1.73	19d	1	1.00mi
8817 Butternut Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	3d	1	1.16mi
9802 Krista Vineyard Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	3d	1	1.17mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Unit 152 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,610	$1.55	3d	1	1.40mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Apt 127 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,535	$1.57	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $117,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $117,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $117,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $117,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $117,000 1907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1907 chars)

    Location, Location Location — Corner Lot Excellence! Your Dream Home Awaits. Welcome to a rare find – a 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home nestled on a coveted corner lot in one of Bakersfield's premier communities. Thoughtfully designed inside and out to provide the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and style. The interior features bright and airy living spaces with dual-pane windows bringing in beautiful natural light to the open-concept living, dining, and kitchen airs. The cathedral ceiling living room features a ceiling fan and painted in chic Stonington Gray with white trim for a clean, modern feel. The stylish kitchen has ample counter space with a stainless steel stovetop insert in a dual-level kitchen counter island; fridge and oven included; separate dining room for family meals or intimate dinners. Wide plank flooring throughout the main living area exudes warmth and elegance. Both bedrooms are spacious and feature double closets for ample storage; primary suite has an en-suite bathroom with a large vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Main bathroom is freshly updated with new flooring, toilet, and shower head for modern comfort and a polished look. The outdoor features include a private fenced and spacious backyard with a distinguished circular patio area, perfect for gatherings or peaceful retreats. The front yard has a shaded sitting area under mature trees for your personal oasis. The front and private backyard connects through an existing wrought iron gate. Covered multi-car carport; off-street parking with room for multiple vehicles. Large storage shed tucked away but easily accessible. Located in one of Bakersfield’s finest parks offering pool, tennis courts, and recreation house with gym, pool tables, and TV room. Wide streets and on-site management for a peaceful living environment. All buyers must be qualified through the park.

16. 2026-04-30
    price $125,000 1907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1907 chars)

    Location, Location Location — Corner Lot Excellence! Your Dream Home Awaits. Welcome to a rare find – a 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home nestled on a coveted corner lot in one of Bakersfield's premier communities. Thoughtfully designed inside and out to provide the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and style. The interior features bright and airy living spaces with dual-pane windows bringing in beautiful natural light to the open-concept living, dining, and kitchen airs. The cathedral ceiling living room features a ceiling fan and painted in chic Stonington Gray with white trim for a clean, modern feel. The stylish kitchen has ample counter space with a stainless steel stovetop insert in a dual-level kitchen counter island; fridge and oven included; separate dining room for family meals or intimate dinners. Wide plank flooring throughout the main living area exudes warmth and elegance. Both bedrooms are spacious and feature double closets for ample storage; primary suite has an en-suite bathroom with a large vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Main bathroom is freshly updated with new flooring, toilet, and shower head for modern comfort and a polished look. The outdoor features include a private fenced and spacious backyard with a distinguished circular patio area, perfect for gatherings or peaceful retreats. The front yard has a shaded sitting area under mature trees for your personal oasis. The front and private backyard connects through an existing wrought iron gate. Covered multi-car carport; off-street parking with room for multiple vehicles. Large storage shed tucked away but easily accessible. Located in one of Bakersfield’s finest parks offering pool, tennis courts, and recreation house with gym, pool tables, and TV room. Wide streets and on-site management for a peaceful living environment. All buyers must be qualified through the park.

17. 2026-03-14
    listed $130,000 Active 1907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1907 chars)

    Location, Location Location — Corner Lot Excellence! Your Dream Home Awaits. Welcome to a rare find – a 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home nestled on a coveted corner lot in one of Bakersfield's premier communities. Thoughtfully designed inside and out to provide the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and style. The interior features bright and airy living spaces with dual-pane windows bringing in beautiful natural light to the open-concept living, dining, and kitchen airs. The cathedral ceiling living room features a ceiling fan and painted in chic Stonington Gray with white trim for a clean, modern feel. The stylish kitchen has ample counter space with a stainless steel stovetop insert in a dual-level kitchen counter island; fridge and oven included; separate dining room for family meals or intimate dinners. Wide plank flooring throughout the main living area exudes warmth and elegance. Both bedrooms are spacious and feature double closets for ample storage; primary suite has an en-suite bathroom with a large vanity, soaking tub, and separate shower. Main bathroom is freshly updated with new flooring, toilet, and shower head for modern comfort and a polished look. The outdoor features include a private fenced and spacious backyard with a distinguished circular patio area, perfect for gatherings or peaceful retreats. The front yard has a shaded sitting area under mature trees for your personal oasis. The front and private backyard connects through an existing wrought iron gate. Covered multi-car carport; off-street parking with room for multiple vehicles. Large storage shed tucked away but easily accessible. Located in one of Bakersfield’s finest parks offering pool, tennis courts, and recreation house with gym, pool tables, and TV room. Wide streets and on-site management for a peaceful living environment. All buyers must be qualified through the park.

18. 2025-12-10
    listed $125,900 Active
19. 2025-07-16
    listed $130,000 Active
20. 2025-06-30
    historical
21. 2025-05-02
    status Active
22. 2025-04-30
    historical
23. 2025-01-31
    listed $128,000 Active
24. 2025-01-17
    historical
25. 2025-01-12
    listed $128,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,571
• − Management: −$1,571
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $4,201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,008
• After-tax cash flow: $4,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $117,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $125,900 GEMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $130,000 GEMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed $128,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-12 Listed $128,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $146 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.