11003 44th Ave E · Memphis, FL 34221

$362,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Land · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 6,864 sqft lot $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dundee offers everything you need in a single-story layout that lives larger than its square footage. With five bedrooms, there's flexibility for whatever life brings-guest space, a home office, or that creative studio you've always wanted. Two full bathrooms with sleek fixtures and easy-care quartz countertops provide both comfort and style. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen shines with a central island, walk-in pantry, and a seamless connection to the spacious great room-perfect for hosting friends or enjoying laid-back evenings in.

Key facts

• Central island
• Single-story layout
• Spacious great room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment listed
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Access Management); Monthly HOA approximately $18.67 (quarterly association fee $56); HOA includes pool and provides clubhouse and maintenance; Association approval required; Pets allowed; Deed restrictions; Community pool and clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage door opener; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected; Irrigation equipment (reclaimed water in community)
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion July 17, 2026); Faces east; New construction
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: DUNDEE)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Landscaped yard; Sidewalks; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet and separate laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $362k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($220/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,020/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $302,019 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-66,380
• Equity at exit: $53,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-90,654
• Equity at exit: $31,299

Cash invested: $101,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,898
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,605/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,997

Max offer price $362,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,500
• Closing costs: $10,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11019 Bud Rhoden Rd Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,589	$1.59	3d	1	0.48mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	23d	1	0.90mi
8960 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,650	$1.34	23d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $362,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $362,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $364,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $364,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $364,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $364,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $364,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $365,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $365,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $365,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $367,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $367,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $367,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $367,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $367,000 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    The Dundee offers everything you need in a single-story layout that lives larger than its square footage. With five bedrooms, there's flexibility for whatever life brings-guest space, a home office, or that creative studio you've always wanted. Two full bathrooms with sleek fixtures and easy-care quartz countertops provide both comfort and style. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen shines with a central island, walk-in pantry, and a seamless connection to the spacious great room-perfect for hosting friends or enjoying laid-back evenings in.

17. 2026-05-20
    price $367,000
18. 2026-05-14
    price $369,000 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    The Dundee offers everything you need in a single-story layout that lives larger than its square footage. With five bedrooms, there's flexibility for whatever life brings-guest space, a home office, or that creative studio you've always wanted. Two full bathrooms with sleek fixtures and easy-care quartz countertops provide both comfort and style. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen shines with a central island, walk-in pantry, and a seamless connection to the spacious great room-perfect for hosting friends or enjoying laid-back evenings in.

19. 2026-05-13
    price $369,000
20. 2026-04-14
    listed $370,990 Active 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    The Dundee offers everything you need in a single-story layout that lives larger than its square footage. With five bedrooms, there's flexibility for whatever life brings-guest space, a home office, or that creative studio you've always wanted. Two full bathrooms with sleek fixtures and easy-care quartz countertops provide both comfort and style. At the heart of the home, the open-concept kitchen shines with a central island, walk-in pantry, and a seamless connection to the spacious great room-perfect for hosting friends or enjoying laid-back evenings in.

21. 2026-04-13
    listed $370,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,605 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,605 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,278
• − Property taxes: −$3,605
• − Insurance: −$1,810
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,899
• − Management: −$2,899
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$10,531
• Taxable loss: −$5,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,439
• After-tax cash flow: $1,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $367,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $367,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $369,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $370,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Listed $370,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+25.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,605 · +25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.