8 Landfall Cir · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$1,995,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,180 sqft · SingleFamily · 333 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition 100 ac lot $477/sqft · 30% below area Est $2.852M · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NORTHWEST PARKLAND RETREAT WITH HORSE BARN This meticulous residence on a shy acre abuts over 500 acres of County parkland and has access to the bay beaches. The home features 3 bedrooms and 3 baths with over 4000 sq. ft. on 3 levels. The main floor has a living room with 14 ft. ceiling and fireplace/ wood burning stove and opens to a stone patio overlooking the pool and reserve area. There are 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The master bedroom has 2 walk-in closets. The dining room also has a 14 ft. ceiling. The recently renovated kitchen features a breakfast area, stainless appliances , pantry and access to the laundry room. The light filled 2nd floor office/den area is 580 sq. ft. The lower level has a gym room, recreation area, home theatre, wet bar area with wine coolers, refrigerator, full bathroom, and storage space. There is a 600 sq. ft. detached 2 car garage, central irrigation plus a garden shed and one story horse barn with 2 stalls on the property.

Key facts

• Wet bar area
• Home theatre
• Stone patio

Tags

• HORSE BARN
• STONE PATIO
• DETACHED GARAGE
• GYM ROOM
• HOME THEATRE
• WET BAR AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.00M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $2.00M).
• Recommended offer: $1.76M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M Marshall Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 51% FRL); East Hampton Middle School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 265 students, 42% FRL); East Hampton High School (math 94% / reading 98%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,015 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $20,235/mo this rent would consume 187% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $559k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 333 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $2.00M implies a 1635% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,755,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 333 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.36%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,851,717
• List price: $1,995,000
• Delta: -30.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Alewive Brook Rd	1.32mi	5/5.5 (+2)	4,250 (+2%)	2mo	$3,850,000	$906	40
2 Old Hollow Ln	1.32mi	3/3.5	3,000 (-28%)	4mo	$2,100,000	$700	35
99 Ely Brook To Hands Cr Rd	1.28mi	5/4.5 (+2)	4,200 (+0%)	20mo	$3,150,000	$750	32
37 Scallop Ave	1.48mi	3/2.5	3,500 (-16%)	8mo	$2,600,000	$743	31
1 Monument Ln	1.02mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,000 (-28%)	11mo	$1,400,000	$467	26
17 Hedges Banks Dr	0.60mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,000 (-28%)	22mo	$1,470,000	$490	20
4 Flint Lock Ln	1.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,000 (-28%)	30mo	$2,350,000	$783	15
15 Saddle Ln	1.67mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,000 (-28%)	40mo	$2,350,000	$783	9
7 Woodpink Dr	1.17mi	4/4.5 (+1)	5,093 (+22%)	54mo	$3,795,000	$745	9

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $30,824
• Equity at exit: $297,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $829,785
• Equity at exit: $172,491

Cash invested: $558,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,462
• Tax from tax record: −$801 /mo · $9,606/yr
• Insurance: −$831
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,249
• Net cashflow: $3,892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $15,309

Max offer price $1,995,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,022	-5% $4,457	+0% $3,892	+5% $3,328	+10% $2,763
Rent	-10% $2,294	-5% $3,093	+0% $3,892	+5% $4,691	+10% $5,491
Rate	-1.0pp $4,897	-0.5pp $4,400	base $3,892	+0.5pp $3,375	+1.0pp $2,849

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $498,750
• Closing costs: $59,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Longboat Ln East Hampton, NY	4.0	4.5	4800	$55,000	$11.46	93d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 333 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 328 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 325 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 324 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 323 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $1,995,000 Active 322 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 320 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 318 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 317 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 316 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 315 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 314 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 312 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 311 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 310 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 309 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 308 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 307 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 306 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 305 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 304 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 303 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 301 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 300 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 299 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 298 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 297 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 296 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 295 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 294 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 293 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 292 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 291 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 290 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 288 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 286 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 285 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 282 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 281 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 280 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 279 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 277 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 276 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 273 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 272 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 271 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,995,000 Active 268 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,606 · $801/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,661 · $1,805/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,055/yr (+$1,005/mo · 125.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $242,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$111,751
• − Property taxes: −$9,606
• − Insurance: −$9,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,426
• − Management: −$19,426
• − Depreciation: −$58,036
• Taxable income: $14,604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,505
• After-tax cash flow: $43,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $20,900–$62,700 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof and siding, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The home is move-in ready and has good potential for value increase with some cosmetic updates.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring wood

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase both its resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 68/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary John M Marshall Elementary School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle East Hampton Middle School C NY #280/729 Nat'l #3,585/14,009 High East Hampton High School A+ NY #71/1,100 Nat'l #103/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1634.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $1,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $2,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $2,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Listed $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,606 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.