1023 Jefferson St · Snowflake, AZ 85937

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2006 5,662 sqft lot Est $322k · at est. $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turn key home with newer flooring. Absolutely spotless home with an open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, large master bedroom separated from the 2 guest bedrooms. Low maintenance landscaping, recently planted trees in the rear. Sundance Springs is within the City limits, small newer neighborhood. A must see! Don't delay this won't last long! HOA Fee is $15 per month, paid quarterly.

Key facts

• Pellet stove
• 5,662 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PELLET STOVE
• CUSTOM DESIGNED BACKYARD
• MAINTENANCE FREE TURF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (38.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.0% in Snowflake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#46 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Snowflake Unified District (4391) (town): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #36 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Highland Primary School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #180 of 1,109 statewide, top 17%, 525 students, 45% FRL); Snowflake Junior High School (math 51% / reading 52%, grade C, #22 of 218 statewide, top 10%, 486 students, 44% FRL); Snowflake High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #38 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 943 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $194,984 (38.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,694
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1023 Jefferson St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,346 (0%)	2mo	$321,500	$239	99
1096 E Adams St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-1%)	5mo	$315,000	$236	90
1134 E Jefferson St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+10%)	3mo	$356,000	$240	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $151,476
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $461,393
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85937

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $658/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,346

Max offer price $259,772

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-134	-5% $-223	+0% $-313	+5% $-760	+10% $-869
Rent	-10% $-467	-5% $-390	+0% $-313	+5% $-236	+10% $-159
Rate	-1.0pp $-154	-0.5pp $-233	base $-313	+0.5pp $-394	+1.0pp $-477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-01
   soldstatus $321,500
2. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-25
   listed $315,000 Active
4. 2015-10-07
   soldstatus $134,900 383-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   Turn key home with newer flooring. Absolutely spotless home with an open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, large master bedroom separated from the 2 guest bedrooms. Low maintenance landscaping, recently planted trees in the rear. Sundance Springs is within the City limits, small newer neighborhood. A must see! Don't delay this won't last long! HOA is only $15 per month, paid quarterly.

5. 2015-10-07
   soldstatus $134,900 385-char remark

   Show marketing remark (385 chars)

   Turn key home with newer flooring. Absolutely spotless home with an open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, large master bedroom separated from the 2 guest bedrooms. Low maintenance landscaping, recently planted trees in the rear. Sundance Springs is within the City limits, small newer neighborhood. A must see! Don't delay this won't last long! HOA is only $15 per month, paid quarterly.

6. 2015-10-06
   soldstatus $134,900
7. 2015-08-13
   listed $134,900 383-char remark

   Show marketing remark (383 chars)

   Turn key home with newer flooring. Absolutely spotless home with an open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, large master bedroom separated from the 2 guest bedrooms. Low maintenance landscaping, recently planted trees in the rear. Sundance Springs is within the City limits, small newer neighborhood. A must see! Don't delay this won't last long! HOA Fee is $15 per month, paid quarterly.

8. 2013-10-05
   soldstatus $96,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $658 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,421/yr (+$118/mo · 215.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$658
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,296
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowflake Unified District (4391)
• NCES district ID: 0407820
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,767
• Composite: 45.91/100
• National rank: #2545
• State rank: #36 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Snowflake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #8817

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Snowflake, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,975

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.31%
• Current HPI: 480.9577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+234.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $321,500 Public Records
• 2026-04-18 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $315,000 WMMLS
• 2015-10-07 Sold (MLS) $134,900 WMMLS
• 2015-10-07 Sold (MLS) $134,900 ARMLS
• 2015-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $134,900 Public Records
• 2015-08-13 Listed $134,900 ARMLS
• 2013-10-05 Sold (MLS) $96,000 WMMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $658 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.