2140 Jesse James Ln · Burleson, TX 76058

$243,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition Est $227k · 8% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $244k).
• Recommended offer: $215k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $214,719 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,803
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200 Doc Holiday Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	1mo	$246,999	$190	98
2152 Jesse James Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$228,999	$158	82
2144 Jesse James Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	1mo	$219,849	$150	80
2428 County Road 911	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+10%)	1mo	$390,000	$270	54
2133 W Fm 917	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,456 (+11%)	9mo	$245,000	$168	49
5815 Thousand Oaks Dr	0.72mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,316 (+0%)	13mo	$227,250	$173	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-13,559
• Equity at exit: $36,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $21,757
• Equity at exit: $21,097

Cash invested: $68,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$305 /mo · $3,660/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,134

Max offer price $243,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $576	-5% $492	+0% $407	+5% $323	+10% $239
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $303	+0% $407	+5% $512	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $469	base $407	+0.5pp $344	+1.0pp $280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,000
• Closing costs: $7,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 Caddo Peak Trl Joshua, TX	3.0	3.0	1504	$2,650	$1.76	11d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $243,999 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $243,999 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $243,999 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $243,999 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $243,999 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $243,999 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $243,999 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $243,999 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 414-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $243,999 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-02-28
    status Pending
12. 2026-02-25
    price $223,999
13. 2026-02-21
    listed $243,999 Active
14. 2026-02-20
    listed $243,999 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,668
• − Property taxes: −$3,660
• − Insurance: −$1,220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$7,098
• Taxable income: $1,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$256
• After-tax cash flow: $4,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property is in poor condition with significant repairs and maintenance needed, including a major roof repair and landscaping improvements. These updates would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The satellite image shows signs of wear and tear on the roof.
• Major landscaping — The satellite image shows overgrown vegetation and a lack of landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both roof repair — A repaired roof can prevent further damage and improve the overall condition of the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The satellite image shows signs of wear and tear on the roof.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The satellite image shows overgrown vegetation and a lack of landscaping.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both roof repair — A repaired roof can prevent further damage and improve the overall condition of the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• City population: 81,549
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $223,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $243,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $243,999 Zillow