7402 Cascade Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1981 4,200 sqft lot Est $143k · 5% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely two two-bedroom two bath located in the popular 55+ community of Ponderosa Park! You can't beat the location which is centrally located and with a full undisturbed view with no home in front of your property. NO lot rent! You OWN your land! The age of the home still allows the buyer to obtain financing if needed. NO flood insurance is required! LOW HOA dues of $250.00 per year include an active clubhouse and a heated pool. Turn-key ready!! Open floor plan with 960 total sq ft of living space. Large bedrooms, both with walk-in closets. True master suite! The exterior of the home has vinyl siding for easy maintenance! Carport! Good-sized driveway for ample parking! Large shed with elec

Key facts

• Active clubhouse
• Carport
• Own your land

Tags

• FULL UNDISTURBED VIEW
• OWN YOUR LAND
• ACTIVE CLUBHOUSE
• HEATED POOL
• VINYL SIDING
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $250; required; approval required; monthly equivalent $20.83); Senior community; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; Association contact: Marylou Eckstein

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story; Faces north
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $135k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.73%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,560
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12119 Bonanza Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$120,000	$114	83
12343 Lariat Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+1%)	13mo	$165,000	$154	83
12210 Bonanza Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	12mo	$178,500	$169	77
12201 Bonanza Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (0%)	11mo	$142,500	$135	76
7310 Stillwater Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+8%)	5mo	$90,000	$79	72
12110 Bonanza Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	962 (-9%)	2mo	$90,000	$94	66
7309 Blue Lake Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	4mo	$115,000	$120	66
7412 Grand Pine Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	12mo	$145,000	$151	64
7308 Osage Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (+12%)	13mo	$175,000	$147	59
7303 Blue Lake Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	13mo	$165,000	$172	57
7318 Allyson St	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+2%)	11mo	$145,000	$134	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,373
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $36,840
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $617/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	24d	1	0.24mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	17d	1	0.24mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	24d	1	0.27mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	4d	1	0.34mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	17d	1	0.41mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.41mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	24d	1	0.43mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	4d	1	0.47mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	2d	1	0.51mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	0.60mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	4d	1	0.77mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	4d	1	0.80mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	21d	1	0.80mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	2d	10	0.85mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	24d	1	0.86mi
12535 3rd Isle Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1389	$2,600	$1.87	24d	1	0.87mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	1	0.87mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	0.89mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	12d	1	0.89mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	12d	1	0.90mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	0.90mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	0.90mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.94mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	0.94mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	0.94mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,811	$1.61	4d	1	0.96mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	1.02mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.02mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	1.04mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	21d	1	1.08mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	23d	1	1.14mi
13128 Beacon Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,600	$1.50	24d	1	1.17mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	4d	1	1.22mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	24d	1	1.23mi
13315 Neptune Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.23mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	17d	1	1.26mi
6731 Sandra Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	24d	1	1.27mi
11103 Harding Dr Unit 2 Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,450	$1.91	19d	1	1.29mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	1.30mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-03-28
    listed $135,000 Active
15. 2012-12-24
    historical
16. 2012-02-29
    listed $55,000
17. 2007-04-19
    soldstatus $73,000
18. 2003-12-30
    soldstatus $66,000
19. 2003-08-27
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 81.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$617
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $5,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,240
• After-tax cash flow: $5,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-29 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $617 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.