3854 Ribera St SW · South Valley, NM 87121

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Other public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1987 5,401 sqft lot $185/sqft · 23% below area Est $260k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great mobile home on permanent foundation with ample Yard space. Home features 3 bedroom and 2 bath, and open concept. Electrical gate for added privacy and back yard access for additional parking space. Priced to sell contact listing broker for more information.

Key facts

• Back yard access
• Permanent foundation
• Electrical gate

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• AMPLE YARD SPACE
• ELECTRICAL GATE
• BACK YARD ACCESS
• ADDITIONAL PARKING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SU
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Resale property; Mobile home model: Shadow (44' x 27')
• Construction: Metal pitched roof; Built by Redman; Builder model: Shadow
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard fencing; Wall fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central forced-air heating; Refrigerated cooling (air conditioning)
• Interior features: Single-pane windows; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.9% in South Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#113 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: commute C-, employment D, schools F.
• Albuquerque Public Schools (urban): math 51% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #3 of 29 in NM (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 259 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,316 units permitted in Bernalillo County in 2024 (546 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,218 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,234
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -23.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,601
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,075
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87121

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $859/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,524

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $379	+0% $323	+5% $266	+10% $209
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $246	+0% $323	+5% $399	+10% $475
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $374	base $323	+0.5pp $271	+1.0pp $218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4301 Riley Rd SW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	2.0	963	$1,400	$1.45	4d	1	0.53mi
8401 Winter Sage Rd SW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	45d	1	0.87mi
2763 Butch Cassidy Dr SW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,000	$1.48	15d	1	0.88mi
1604 Corriz Dr SW Albuquerque, NM	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,925	$1.64	45d	1	1.02mi
1312 Quartz Dr SW Albuquerque, NM	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,098	$1.44	15d	1	1.18mi
2300 Diamond Mesa Trl SW Albuquerque, NM	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1176	$2,334	$1.98	4d	26	1.21mi
1327 Ojo Feliz St SW Albuquerque, NM	2.0	1.0	924	$1,695	$1.83	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-05-17
    status Pending 263-char remark
13. 2026-04-30
    listed $200,000 Active 263-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$741/yr (+$62/mo · 86.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$859
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$143
• After-tax cash flow: $3,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albuquerque Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500060
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 45.00%
• Median HH income: $48,151
• Composite: 53.29/100
• National rank: #1487
• State rank: #3 of 29 in NM

Livability — South Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #19456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bernalillo County · 647,165 people
• City population: 54,215
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 75,510
• Household income: $60,796
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1617.0

Population outlook (Bernalillo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 704,528 people
• By 2030: 711,723 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 714,522 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 709,274 · +0.7%
• By 2075: 680,015 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 619,879 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 32% White 9% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 44% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bernalillo

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.2% · R 38.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.3pp no change · 2008: 21.4pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+24.4 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.80%
• Current HPI: 261.8123
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.86%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $200,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+20.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $859 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.