3489 Rainbow Lake Dr #3 · Lake of the Woods, AZ 85929

$55,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 129 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition $46/sqft · 78% below area ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your charming Mountain oasis in the heart of Pinetop-Lakeside. This 1,200 sq. ft. home sits on an oversized lot in Rainbow Lake Mobile Park, a 55+ community with easy access to outdoor activities, shopping, dining, and hospitals. One of the community's largest units with ample room to expand, the home has been newly updated with durable vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted kitchen cabinets, and a new splitter to keep you comfortable year-round with heat and AC. Enjoy morning coffee in your inside patio, entertain on your covered outdoor patio area, and take advantage of a brand-new gazebo for additional entertainment space. Home features a spacious bedroom with built-in dresser, a bathroom with convenient his and hers sinks, and ample kitchen storage. Lot rent is $600/month.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1970
• Listed 129 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $55,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$244,604) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $754 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 2.4% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#206 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.74%
• DSCR: 3.61
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,604
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -77.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3461 Bob's Ct	0.08mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	7mo	$319,000	$290	67
2680 Green Pine Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (+8%)	5mo	$239,000	$184	47
4295 Yuma Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,187 (-1%)	21mo	$263,500	$222	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $39,120
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $95,974
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85929

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $55,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    price $55,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Your charming Mountain oasis in the heart of Pinetop-Lakeside. This 1,200 sq. ft. home sits on an oversized lot in Rainbow Lake Mobile Park, a 55+ community with easy access to outdoor activities, shopping, dining, and hospitals. One of the community's largest units with ample room to expand, the home has been newly updated with durable vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted kitchen cabinets, and a new splitter to keep you comfortable year-round with heat and AC. Enjoy morning coffee in your inside patio, entertain on your covered outdoor patio area, and take advantage of a brand-new gazebo for additional entertainment space. Home features a spacious bedroom with built-in dresser, a bathroom with convenient his and hers sinks, and ample kitchen storage. Lot rent is $600/month.

17. 2026-02-10
    listed $65,000 Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Your charming Mountain oasis in the heart of Pinetop-Lakeside. This 1,200 sq. ft. home sits on an oversized lot in Rainbow Lake Mobile Park, a 55+ community with easy access to outdoor activities, shopping, dining, and hospitals. One of the community's largest units with ample room to expand, the home has been newly updated with durable vinyl plank flooring, freshly painted kitchen cabinets, and a new splitter to keep you comfortable year-round with heat and AC. Enjoy morning coffee in your inside patio, entertain on your covered outdoor patio area, and take advantage of a brand-new gazebo for additional entertainment space. Home features a spacious bedroom with built-in dresser, a bathroom with convenient his and hers sinks, and ample kitchen storage. Lot rent is $600/month.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $8,687
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,085
• After-tax cash flow: $6,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1,200 sq. ft. home in Rainbow Lake Mobile Park is in good condition with updated features and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for further updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale upgrading appliances — newer appliances improve functionality and appeal
• Resale upgrading flooring — new flooring enhances the home's value and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale upgrading appliances — newer appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Resale upgrading flooring — new flooring enhances the home's value and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #20890

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 7,280

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Native American 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.03%
• Current HPI: 383.9587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $55,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-10 Listed $65,000 MLSSAZ