6254 Forest Pines Dr · Bellview, FL 32526

$347,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,284 sqft · Land · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 5,662 sqft lot $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sycamore floor plan in Bellview Pointe is a thoughtfully designed two story home set within a community of quiet cul-de-sac streets, placing you within 10 miles of the stunning Gulf Coast beaches and the charm of historic Downtown Pensacola, along with convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, medical facilities and military bases, creating a lifestyle that balances relaxation with everyday convenience. A welcoming front porch leads into a bright foyer where a guest bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for visitors or a private workspace. The layout unfolds into the heart of the home, where the kitchen stands out with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and a spac

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $348k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-531 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Longleaf Elementary School (math 37% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 548 students, 77% FRL); Bellview Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Pine Forest High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,870 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 421 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $239,873 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.54%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-86,686
• Equity at exit: $51,873

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-104,171
• Equity at exit: $30,080

Cash invested: $97,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32526

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,824
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,218/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,071

Max offer price $271,026

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-291	-5% $-411	+0% $-531	+5% $-651	+10% $-772
Rent	-10% $-721	-5% $-626	+0% $-531	+5% $-437	+10% $-342
Rate	-1.0pp $-356	-0.5pp $-443	base $-531	+0.5pp $-621	+1.0pp $-713

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,975
• Closing costs: $10,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $347,900 Active
3. 2025-10-27
   soldstatus $473,881

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,488
• − Property taxes: −$5,218
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,303
• − Management: −$2,303
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$10,121
• Taxable loss: −$12,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,036
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bellview

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #10731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellview, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,680
• Household income: $75,098
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.68%
• Current HPI: 252.6406
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-26.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $347,900 PARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $473,881 Public Records