5401 Morrow Rd · Sherman, MI 48624

$71,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 652 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1950 0.30 ac lot $109/sqft · 20% above area Est $59k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute & Cozy 1 bedroom waterfront cabin on Grass Lake canal. Large living room, good size bedroom, skylight in the dining area, knotty pine throughout most of the home and more. Fenced yard for your pets to keep them safe as well. Kayak out to the lake and enjoy the days! Close to ORV trails and state land for hunting, trail riding and snowmobiling. Ride from your place to the trails!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Close to orv trails
• Waterfront cabin

Tags

• WATERFRONT CABIN
• FENCED YARD
• SKYLIGHT IN DINING AREA
• KNOTTY PINE THROUGHOUT
• CLOSE TO ORV TRAILS
• CLOSE TO STATE LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $71k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $872 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $71k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harrison Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #457 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $491 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,740 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.61%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,151
• List price: $71,000
• Delta: 20.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5344 Jewel St	0.18mi	1/1.0	555 (-15%)	11mo	$42,500	$77	58
5361 Jewel St	0.13mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (-8%)	22mo	$70,000	$117	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $43,992
• Equity at exit: $10,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $109,730
• Equity at exit: $6,139

Cash invested: $19,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$372
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $307/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $541

Max offer price $71,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $912	-5% $892	+0% $872	+5% $851	+10% $831
Rent	-10% $742	-5% $807	+0% $872	+5% $937	+10% $1,001
Rate	-1.0pp $907	-0.5pp $890	base $872	+0.5pp $853	+1.0pp $834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,750
• Closing costs: $2,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $71,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $71,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $71,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $71,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $71,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $71,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $71,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $71,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $71,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $71,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $71,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $71,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $71,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $71,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $71,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $71,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $75,000 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Cute & Cozy 1 bedroom waterfront cabin on Grass Lake canal. Large living room, good size bedroom, skylight in the dining area, knotty pine throughout most of the home and more. Fenced yard for your pets to keep them safe as well. Kayak out to the lake and enjoy the days! Close to ORV trails and state land for hunting, trail riding and snowmobiling. Ride from your place to the trails!

18. 2026-04-12
    listed $79,900 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Cute & Cozy 1 bedroom waterfront cabin on Grass Lake canal. Large living room, good size bedroom, skylight in the dining area, knotty pine throughout most of the home and more. Fenced yard for your pets to keep them safe as well. Kayak out to the lake and enjoy the days! Close to ORV trails and state land for hunting, trail riding and snowmobiling. Ride from your place to the trails!

19. 2025-05-16
    soldstatus $60,000
20. 2024-08-28
    soldstatus $55,000
21. 2024-08-23
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Check out this beautiful, well kept cabin on Grass Lake. Don't miss this opportunity with this spacious 1 bed/1 bath, fully furnished gem. There are so many great features to this cabin including a new well pump and water heater both in 2023. Many more updates have been done to this cabin. Also very close to many ORV trails and plenty of state land for those hunting enthusiasts. Schedule your showing today this one won't last long!!

22. 2024-08-10
    status Pending 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Check out this beautiful, well kept cabin on Grass Lake. Don't miss this opportunity with this spacious 1 bed/1 bath, fully furnished gem. There are so many great features to this cabin including a new well pump and water heater both in 2023. Many more updates have been done to this cabin. Also very close to many ORV trails and plenty of state land for those hunting enthusiasts. Schedule your showing today this one won't last long!!

23. 2024-07-23
    price $59,900 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Check out this beautiful, well kept cabin on Grass Lake. Don't miss this opportunity with this spacious 1 bed/1 bath, fully furnished gem. There are so many great features to this cabin including a new well pump and water heater both in 2023. Many more updates have been done to this cabin. Also very close to many ORV trails and plenty of state land for those hunting enthusiasts. Schedule your showing today this one won't last long!!

24. 2024-06-29
    listed $69,900 Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    Check out this beautiful, well kept cabin on Grass Lake. Don't miss this opportunity with this spacious 1 bed/1 bath, fully furnished gem. There are so many great features to this cabin including a new well pump and water heater both in 2023. Many more updates have been done to this cabin. Also very close to many ORV trails and plenty of state land for those hunting enthusiasts. Schedule your showing today this one won't last long!!

25. 2023-11-05
    historical
26. 2023-11-05
    historical
27. 2023-10-16
    status Active
28. 2023-10-16
    status Active
29. 2023-10-12
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
30. 2023-10-12
    historical Contingent - Continue To Show
31. 2023-10-10
    status Active
32. 2023-10-10
    status Active
33. 2023-08-29
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
34. 2023-08-29
    historical Contingent - Continue To Show
35. 2023-08-20
    listed $55,000 Active
36. 2023-08-20
    listed $55,000 Active
37. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $54,900 Closed
38. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $54,900
39. 2021-04-19
    historical
40. 2021-03-18
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $307 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $700 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 128.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,977
• − Property taxes: −$307
• − Insurance: −$355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − Depreciation: −$2,065
• Taxable income: $9,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,369
• After-tax cash flow: $8,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617820
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,377
• Composite: 18.07/100
• National rank: #8977
• State rank: #457 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sherman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+36.6% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-23 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-29 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-16 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-16 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-12 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-12 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-10 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-10 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-29 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-29 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-20 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-20 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-04-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-03-18 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $307 · -45.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.