Copperleaf Plan · Otsego, MN 55301

$438,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · SingleFamily · 179 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home is designed for improved space and flexibility. The first floor is host to an open layout that seamlessly flows from the Great Room to the dining area and kitchen, while a dedicated flex is ready to be used as a home office, playroom or formal sitting area. The second floor delivers abundant living space with a tranquil owner's suite featuring luxurious bath and walk-in closet, three additional bedrooms and a spacious bonus room perfect for media nights, game play and much more.

Key facts

• Top-rated schools
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 178 days

Tags

• PEACEFUL SUBURBAN LIVING
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO FREEWAYS

🏗️ New construction. The $438,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $613,233.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $439k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 3.9% in Otsego — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#367 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otsego Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #157 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #19 of 258 statewide, top 8%, 979 students, 16% FRL); Rogers Senior High (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B, #28 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 1,740 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($386k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $318,535 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.03%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $613,233
• List price: $438,990
• Delta: -28.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12087 80th St NE	2.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,600 (+6%)	2mo	$445,000	$171	49
8061 Lander Ave NE	1.50mi	5/3.0	2,505 (+2%)	28mo	$453,100	$181	42
9856 51st St NE	2.19mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,439 (-1%)	49mo	$484,990	$199	39
9828 51st St NE	2.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,489 (+1%)	54mo	$525,720	$211	38
6672 Lamplight Dr	1.35mi	5/3.0	3,196 (+30%)	17mo	$635,000	$199	26
7859 Lachman Ave	1.13mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,700 (+10%)	50mo	$437,290	$162	24
7303 Kalland Cir NE	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-2)	2,086 (-15%)	24mo	$310,000	$149	16
11528 81st Ln NE	1.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,050 (-17%)	40mo	$402,000	$196	15
11453 81st Ln NE	1.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,049 (-17%)	50mo	$408,990	$200	15
11293 83rd Ln NE	1.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,810 (+14%)	27mo	$749,990	$267	14
11305 83rd Ln NE	1.52mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,821 (+15%)	26mo	$699,990	$248	12
10485 Karston Ave NE	1.60mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,849 (+16%)	51mo	$495,000	$174	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-208,965
• Equity at exit: $91,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-322,950
• Equity at exit: $53,021

Cash invested: $171,705 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 5 under contract
• Median asking: $422,345 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 13 d
• This list price: 80% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +35.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 55301

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,216
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$767 /mo · $9,198/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$669
• Net cashflow: $-1,721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,364

Max offer price $364,131

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,298	-5% $-1,510	+0% $-1,721	+5% $-1,933	+10% $-2,145
Rent	-10% $-1,973	-5% $-1,847	+0% $-1,721	+5% $-1,596	+10% $-1,470
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,413	-0.5pp $-1,566	base $-1,721	+0.5pp $-1,880	+1.0pp $-2,042

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,308
• Closing costs: $18,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Otsego, MN 55301
• Financial info: List price $444,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan homeNew construction (Plan) — Copperleaf
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2460

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)Plan named Copperleaf

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $438,990 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $438,990 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $438,990 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $438,990 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $438,990 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $438,990 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $438,990 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $438,990 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $438,990 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $438,990 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $438,990 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $438,990 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $438,990 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $438,990 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $438,990 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $438,990 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $438,990 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $438,990 Active 161 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $438,990 Active 160 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $438,990 Active 159 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $438,990 Active 158 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $438,990 Active 157 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $438,990 Active 156 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $438,990 Active 155 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $438,990 Active 154 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $438,990 Active 153 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $438,990 Active 152 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $438,990 Active 151 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $438,990 Active 150 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $438,990 Active 149 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $438,990 Active 148 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $438,990 Active 147 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $438,990 Active 146 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $438,990 Active 145 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $438,990 Active 144 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $438,990 Active 143 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    price $438,990 Active 142 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $453,990 Active 142 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $453,990 Active 141 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $453,990 Active 140 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $453,990 Active 139 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $453,990 Active 138 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $453,990 Active 137 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $453,990 Active 135 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $453,990 Active 134 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $453,990 Active 133 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $453,990 Active 132 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $453,990 Active 131 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $453,990 Active 130 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $453,990 Active 129 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,351
• − Property taxes: −$9,198
• − Insurance: −$3,066
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,058
• − Management: −$3,058
• − Depreciation: −$17,840
• Taxable loss: −$32,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,763
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and ample living space. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Prairie View Elementary School B+ MN #118/857 Nat'l #4,921/41,679 Middle Prairie View Middle School B- MN #48/258 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Rogers Senior High B MN #28/471 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Otsego

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #8641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otsego, MN
• County: Wright County · 142,526 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,482
• Household income: $129,232
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.52%
• Current HPI: 233.6299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Otsego, MN 55301
• Financial info: List price $444,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan homeNew construction (Plan) — Copperleaf
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2460

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)Plan named Copperleaf