245 Orville Rd · Essex, MD 21221

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Townhouse public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1954 1,616 sqft lot Est $194k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this completely remodeled town home. The seller is throwing in a brand-new washer and dryer, which is now installed on the property. The top two levels feature new hardwood floors. The basement has plenty of space for any other projects as well. Come see this beauty for yourself.

Key facts

• Built 1954
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land and improvement assessed values recorded (assessor); County tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Finished above-grade area of 896 (assessor); Below-grade unfinished area of 448 (assessor); Total below-grade area 448
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Other structures both above grade and below grade; Year built sourced from assessor
• Exterior features: Public water and public sewer; Ground rent paid annually; Not tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating fuel; Cooling system (type listed as Other) powered by natural gas; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Primary living area measurement sourced from assessor; Basement present with both above-grade and below-grade components; Two or more access/egress points

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($687/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.9% in Essex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in MD, #2,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Elementary (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #681 of 860 statewide, top 81%, 373 students, 74% FRL); Stemmers Run Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 838 students, 68% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 39% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,712 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,432
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
747 Middlesex Rd	0.37mi	2/1.0	896 (0%)	13mo	$196,000	$219	72
1110 N Marlyn Ave	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,016 (+13%)	11mo	$213,000	$210	61
1037 Arncliffe Rd	0.07mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	13mo	$255,000	$249	55
738 Arncliffe Rd	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,016 (+13%)	8mo	$180,000	$177	52
724 Middlesex	0.38mi	2/1.5	1,016 (+13%)	7mo	$170,000	$167	52
560 Chalcot Sq	0.54mi	2/1.0	864 (-4%)	22mo	$198,500	$230	51
647 Dunwich Way	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	2mo	$147,000	$144	47
53 S Hawthorne Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	9mo	$222,100	$217	30
1532 Doolittle Rd	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	18mo	$155,000	$154	26
116 Riverthorn Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	18mo	$230,000	$225	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-32,098
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-36,482
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21221

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,487/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,695

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $114	+0% $57	+5% $1	+10% $-56
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-13	+0% $57	+5% $127	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $108	base $57	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1325 Fuselage Ave Middle River, MD	2.0	1.0	672	$1,600	$2.38	6d	1	0.36mi
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	23d	1	0.44mi
201 Middleway Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,571	$2.09	4d	24	0.46mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	25d	1	0.62mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	25d	1	0.74mi
4 Essex Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	25d	1	0.96mi
433 Grovethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	23d	1	0.98mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	3d	1	1.06mi
2242 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	45d	1	1.11mi
303 Holly Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	739	$1,510	$2.04	0d	10	1.33mi
736 West Kingsway Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,742	$1.58	21d	7	1.40mi
9901 Langs Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,485	$1.56	45d	10	1.44mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	6d	1	1.45mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	6d	1	1.46mi
2 Driftwood Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	720	$1,168	$1.62	0d	5	1.48mi
305 S Marlyn Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	676	$1,300	$1.92	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2026-04-07
   historical $199,900
4. 2022-05-16
   soldstatus $166,000
5. 2022-03-14
   soldstatus $166,000 Closed 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Come check out this completely remodeled town home. The seller is throwing in a brand-new washer and dryer, which is now installed on the property. The top two levels feature new hardwood floors. The basement has plenty of space for any other projects as well. Come see this beauty for yourself.

6. 2022-02-18
   status Pending 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Come check out this completely remodeled town home. The seller is throwing in a brand-new washer and dryer, which is now installed on the property. The top two levels feature new hardwood floors. The basement has plenty of space for any other projects as well. Come see this beauty for yourself.

7. 2022-02-07
   status Active 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Come check out this completely remodeled town home. The seller is throwing in a brand-new washer and dryer, which is now installed on the property. The top two levels feature new hardwood floors. The basement has plenty of space for any other projects as well. Come see this beauty for yourself.

8. 2022-01-18
   status Pending 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Come check out this completely remodeled town home. The seller is throwing in a brand-new washer and dryer, which is now installed on the property. The top two levels feature new hardwood floors. The basement has plenty of space for any other projects as well. Come see this beauty for yourself.

9. 2022-01-11
   listed $169,000 Active 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Come check out this completely remodeled town home. The seller is throwing in a brand-new washer and dryer, which is now installed on the property. The top two levels feature new hardwood floors. The basement has plenty of space for any other projects as well. Come see this beauty for yourself.

10. 2022-01-10
    soldstatus $155,500
11. 2021-12-16
    soldstatus $155,500 Closed 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN FOR LESS!! Completely remodeled townhome waiting for you to make it your own. NEW kitchen with all NEW appliances. NEW flooring throughout. Freshly painted. NEW moldings and NEW doors. Completely NEW bathroom. NEW windows. NEW ceiling fans. NEW light fixtures. NEW storm doors. NEW vinyl front porch railings. Central air conditioning. Unfinished but very usable space in the lower level. Lower level freshly painted. Hook ups for washer and dryer. A MUST see opportunity to be HOME for the holidays.

12. 2021-12-09
    status Pending 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN FOR LESS!! Completely remodeled townhome waiting for you to make it your own. NEW kitchen with all NEW appliances. NEW flooring throughout. Freshly painted. NEW moldings and NEW doors. Completely NEW bathroom. NEW windows. NEW ceiling fans. NEW light fixtures. NEW storm doors. NEW vinyl front porch railings. Central air conditioning. Unfinished but very usable space in the lower level. Lower level freshly painted. Hook ups for washer and dryer. A MUST see opportunity to be HOME for the holidays.

13. 2021-11-18
    historical Active Under Contract 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN FOR LESS!! Completely remodeled townhome waiting for you to make it your own. NEW kitchen with all NEW appliances. NEW flooring throughout. Freshly painted. NEW moldings and NEW doors. Completely NEW bathroom. NEW windows. NEW ceiling fans. NEW light fixtures. NEW storm doors. NEW vinyl front porch railings. Central air conditioning. Unfinished but very usable space in the lower level. Lower level freshly painted. Hook ups for washer and dryer. A MUST see opportunity to be HOME for the holidays.

14. 2021-11-15
    listed $140,000 Active 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN FOR LESS!! Completely remodeled townhome waiting for you to make it your own. NEW kitchen with all NEW appliances. NEW flooring throughout. Freshly painted. NEW moldings and NEW doors. Completely NEW bathroom. NEW windows. NEW ceiling fans. NEW light fixtures. NEW storm doors. NEW vinyl front porch railings. Central air conditioning. Unfinished but very usable space in the lower level. Lower level freshly painted. Hook ups for washer and dryer. A MUST see opportunity to be HOME for the holidays.

15. 2015-10-08
    soldstatus $145,000
16. 1965-10-13
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,487 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,487 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,487
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Essex

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #2277

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Essex, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 43,487
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 43,487
• Household income: $67,340
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1757.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.14%
• Current HPI: 237.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+2398.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $166,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-14 Sold (MLS) $166,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-02-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-02-07 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-11 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $155,500 Public Records
• 2021-12-16 Sold (MLS) $155,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-12-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-18 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-15 Listed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 1965-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,487 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.