85 E Locust Ln · New Oxford, PA 17350

$249,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Other public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1995 9,148 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is a short sale with bank approved price. Home being sold As Is. Seller will not make any repairs. All appliances convey. Great home that just needs a little love to bring it back to life! Partially finished basement and a garage too!

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#944 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Conewago Valley SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $249k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,196 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,330
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,141
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17350

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,573/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,161

Max offer price $229,576

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-39	+0% $-110	+5% $-180	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-190	+0% $-110	+5% $-30	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-47	base $-110	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $249,000 Active
3. 2026-04-05
   historical $249,000
4. 2019-03-20
   soldstatus $129,000
5. 2019-03-15
   soldstatus $129,000 Closed 244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (244 chars)

   Property is a short sale with bank approved price. Home being sold As Is. Seller will not make any repairs. All appliances convey. Great home that just needs a little love to bring it back to life! Partially finished basement and a garage too!

6. 2019-02-25
   status Pending 244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (244 chars)

   Property is a short sale with bank approved price. Home being sold As Is. Seller will not make any repairs. All appliances convey. Great home that just needs a little love to bring it back to life! Partially finished basement and a garage too!

7. 2018-12-14
   price $132,000 244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (244 chars)

   Property is a short sale with bank approved price. Home being sold As Is. Seller will not make any repairs. All appliances convey. Great home that just needs a little love to bring it back to life! Partially finished basement and a garage too!

8. 2018-12-08
   historical Active Under Contract 244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (244 chars)

   Property is a short sale with bank approved price. Home being sold As Is. Seller will not make any repairs. All appliances convey. Great home that just needs a little love to bring it back to life! Partially finished basement and a garage too!

9. 2018-11-21
   price $125,000 244-char remark

   Show marketing remark (244 chars)

   Property is a short sale with bank approved price. Home being sold As Is. Seller will not make any repairs. All appliances convey. Great home that just needs a little love to bring it back to life! Partially finished basement and a garage too!

10. 2018-10-19
    listed $136,500 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Property is a short sale with bank approved price. Home being sold As Is. Seller will not make any repairs. All appliances convey. Great home that just needs a little love to bring it back to life! Partially finished basement and a garage too!

11. 2009-04-30
    soldstatus $162,000
12. 2009-04-24
    soldstatus $162,000 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Very nice and affordable 3 bedroom home in a great neighborhood. Lower level family room opens to fenced rear yard. One car garage. Lots of improvements - even new thermopane insulated windows. A must see!

13. 2009-03-18
    historical 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Very nice and affordable 3 bedroom home in a great neighborhood. Lower level family room opens to fenced rear yard. One car garage. Lots of improvements - even new thermopane insulated windows. A must see!

14. 2008-08-13
    listed $162,000 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Very nice and affordable 3 bedroom home in a great neighborhood. Lower level family room opens to fenced rear yard. One car garage. Lots of improvements - even new thermopane insulated windows. A must see!

15. 2008-08-08
    historical
16. 2008-05-07
    listed $163,000
17. 2006-02-24
    soldstatus $147,500
18. 2006-01-18
    historical
19. 2005-10-18
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,573 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,754 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$180/yr (+$15/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,573
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,941
• − Management: −$1,941
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$5,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $31/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conewago Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4206550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $54,603
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #3572
• State rank: #215 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Oxford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #944
• US rank: #10326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,219

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,494 people
• By 2030: 101,890 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 98,417 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 92,014 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 76,128 · -25.7%
• By 2100: 58,931 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.7% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.47%
• Current HPI: 293.6445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+66.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-05 Coming Soon $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-15 Sold (MLS) $129,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-14 Price Changed $132,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-08 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-21 Price Changed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-19 Listed $136,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2009-04-24 Sold (MLS) $162,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-03-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-08-13 Listed $162,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-08-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-05-07 Listed $163,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-02-24 Sold (MLS) $147,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-01-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-10-18 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,573 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.