48 Springville Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$927,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1972 10,019 sqft lot $762/sqft · 7% above area Est $961k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ideally situated in the heart of Hampton Bays with walk-to- town convenience and  5-min drive to the beaches! This well-appointed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a private third bedroom with separate exterior access, full bath, kitchenette, and additional living space—perfect for guest privacy or extended stays, with sound insulation for added comfort. Resort-style backyard with pool, hot tub, fire pit, fully fenced yard, and mature privacy landscaping offers a true Hamptons lifestyle, while parking for 5–6 vehicles adds rare convenience. The main residence includes a full kitchen, living and dining areas, plus a dedicated laundry room with built-in cabinets in the base

Key facts

• Kitchenette
• Sound insulation
• Full bath

Tags

• PRIVATE THIRD BEDROOM
• SEPARATE EXTERIOR ACCESS
• FULL BATH
• KITCHENETTE
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACE
• SOUND INSULATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with parking for 6 vehicles
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Septic tank; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Other construction materials; Partial attic; Crawl space and partial finished basement; Finished basement
• Exterior features: In-ground private pool; Full fencing; Sprinklers in front; Sprinklers in rear; Corner lot; Near public transit; Private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Home office (additional room)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Deck (patio/porch feature)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $927k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $927k).
• Recommended offer: $899k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,388/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $260k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($899k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $431k; list at $927k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $899,190 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $961,390
• List price: $927,000
• Delta: -3.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Elm St	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-1%)	16mo	$735,000	$613	72
54 Ocean Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	11mo	$705,000	$588	70
25 Seaside Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-3%)	15mo	$812,500	$691	68
52 Springville Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+9%)	21mo	$720,000	$545	67
2 Marinea Pl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+4%)	14mo	$1,090,000	$865	57
4 Poplar St	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (+10%)	22mo	$735,000	$552	55
9 Squiretown Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,266 (+4%)	7mo	$910,000	$719	53
2 Flocee Ln	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,109 (-9%)	16mo	$800,000	$721	47
35A Neptune Ave	0.23mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,388 (+14%)	12mo	$935,000	$674	46
53 Shore Rd	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,390 (+14%)	10mo	$774,000	$557	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $12,819
• Equity at exit: $138,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $382,097
• Equity at exit: $80,150

Cash invested: $259,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,861
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,600/yr
• Insurance: −$386
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,972
• Net cashflow: $1,786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,128

Max offer price $927,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,311	-5% $2,048	+0% $1,786	+5% $1,524	+10% $1,261
Rent	-10% $1,044	-5% $1,415	+0% $1,786	+5% $2,157	+10% $2,528
Rate	-1.0pp $2,253	-0.5pp $2,022	base $1,786	+0.5pp $1,546	+1.0pp $1,301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $231,750
• Closing costs: $27,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	45d	1	0.36mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	26d	1	0.48mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	26d	1	0.52mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	45d	1	0.53mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	26d	1	0.86mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	45d	1	0.94mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	21d	1	0.98mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	26d	1	1.01mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	45d	1	1.02mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	17d	1	1.04mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	45d	1	1.16mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	26d	1	1.18mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	22d	1	1.22mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	19d	1	1.40mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	45d	1	1.41mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	26d	1	1.42mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	7d	1	1.44mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $927,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $927,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $927,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $927,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $927,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $927,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $927,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $927,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $927,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    status $927,000 Pending 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $927,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $927,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    listed $927,000 Active 908-char remark
14. 2025-08-21
    price $945,000
15. 2025-05-25
    listed $975,000 Active
16. 2021-10-14
    historical
17. 2021-10-08
    price $584,900
18. 2021-09-28
    price $599,000
19. 2021-09-09
    historical
20. 2021-09-09
    price $614,500
21. 2021-08-21
    price $625,000
22. 2021-08-09
    historical
23. 2021-08-09
    price $629,990
24. 2021-07-16
    status Active
25. 2021-07-16
    price $655,000
26. 2021-05-20
    status Pending
27. 2021-04-30
    price $599,000
28. 2021-04-20
    historical
29. 2021-04-05
    historical
30. 2021-03-31
    price $584,900
31. 2021-03-01
    historical
32. 2021-02-23
    historical
33. 2021-02-22
    price $605,000
34. 2021-02-19
    historical
35. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $431,025
36. 2020-12-01
    listed $619,000 Active
37. 2020-11-26
    historical
38. 2020-11-26
    listed $614,500 Active
39. 2020-11-26
    listed $629,990 Active
40. 2020-11-26
    listed $584,900 Active
41. 2020-11-26
    listed $584,900 Active
42. 2020-11-26
    listed $605,000 Active
43. 2020-11-26
    listed $605,000 Active
44. 2020-11-26
    listed $619,000 Active
45. 2020-10-12
    soldstatus $431,025 Closed
46. 2020-07-15
    listed $350,000 Active
47. 2020-03-27
    status Pending
48. 2018-12-13
    historical
49. 2017-06-10
    status Under Contract
50. 2017-06-09
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,600 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,133 · $844/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,533/yr (+$461/mo · 120.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $112,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$51,926
• − Property taxes: −$4,600
• − Insurance: −$4,635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,013
• − Management: −$9,013
• − Depreciation: −$26,967
• Taxable income: $6,507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,562
• After-tax cash flow: $19,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+151.2% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $927,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $945,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-25 Listed $975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-08 Price Changed $584,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-28 Price Changed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-09 Price Changed $614,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-21 Price Changed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-09 Price Changed $629,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-16 Price Changed $655,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-20 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Price Changed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-31 Price Changed $584,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-22 Price Changed $605,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $431,025 Public Records
• 2020-12-01 Listed $619,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-26 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-26 Listed $619,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-26 Listed $605,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-26 Listed $605,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-26 Listed $584,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-26 Listed $584,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-26 Listed $629,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-26 Listed $614,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-12 Sold (MLS) $431,025 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-15 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-18 Listed $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,600 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.