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1873 Jennings Way
D- Composite 38.75
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +10.7/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.5/30.0
  • Schools +5.4/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.3/5.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.0/10.0
  • DSCR +1.6/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$247,070

1873 Jennings Way · Middleburg, FL 32068
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,403 sqft · Townhouse · 138 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition Garage $176/sqft · 7% below area Est $266k · 7% under $176/mo HOA · 9% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Enter through the covered porch into the foyer, where a powder bath and convenient access to the garage are located. Continue into the open-concept main level, featuring a kitchen that flows into the dining area and family room. A door connects the main living space to the rear patio, extending the home's usable area outdoors. Upstairs, a centrally located laundry room adds everyday functionality. The primary bedroom includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom. The layout is designed for comfort, efficiency, and flexibility to best fit your needs.

Key facts

  • $176 HOA
  • Garage
  • Built 2026

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $247k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (18.3% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (19.5% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $199k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 35% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Recommended offer $198,831 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.80%
Cap rate
4.77%
Cash-on-cash
-5.42%
DSCR
0.76
GRM
10.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$265,855
List price
$247,070
Delta
-7.47%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
1870 Jennings Way 0.03mi 3/2.5 1,404 (+0%) 1mo $229,990 $164 98
1874 Jennings Way 0.03mi 3/2.5 1,404 (+0%) 1mo $229,990 $164 98
1869 Jennings Way 0.00mi 3/2.5 1,403 (0%) 3mo $244,990 $175 97
1568 Jeremiah St 0.74mi 3/2.5 1,468 (+5%) 9mo $238,990 $163 50
3827 Baxley Villas Ct 0.74mi 3/2.5 1,604 (+14%) 2mo $285,000 $178 40
3839 Baxley Villas Ct 0.73mi 3/2.5 1,604 (+14%) 4mo $287,000 $179 39
3891 Baxley Villas Ct 0.73mi 3/2.5 1,604 (+14%) 4mo $259,990 $162 38
3875 Baxley Villas Ct 0.73mi 3/2.5 1,604 (+14%) 6mo $269,990 $168 37
3849 Baxley Villas Ct 0.72mi 3/2.5 1,604 (+14%) 6mo $285,000 $178 37
3861 Baxley Villas Ct 0.72mi 3/2.5 1,604 (+14%) 7mo $280,000 $175 37
3873 Baxley Villas Ct 0.72mi 3/2.5 1,604 (+14%) 7mo $269,900 $168 37
3877 Baxley Villas Ct 0.74mi 3/2.5 1,604 (+14%) 8mo $272,990 $170 35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-25.0%
Equity multiple
0.15×
Total profit
$-59,110
Equity at exit
$36,839
10-year hold
IRR
-19.7%
Equity multiple
-0.06×
Total profit
$-73,650
Equity at exit
$21,362

Cash invested: $69,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
39 active · 24 under contract
Months of supply
9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$264,990 ($185/sqft)
Median days on market
49 d
This list price
18% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32068

Home prices YoY
-27.5%
Rents YoY
3.4%
Active inventory
875
Price-to-rent
10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,988 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,296
Tax est. 1.5%
$309 /mo · $3,706/yr
Insurance
$103
HOA
$176
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$418
Net cashflow
$-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384
Max offer price $201,825
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-142 -5% $-227 +0% $-313 +5% $-398 +10% $-483
Rent -10% $-470 -5% $-391 +0% $-313 +5% $-234 +10% $-156
Rate -1.0pp $-188 -0.5pp $-250 base $-313 +0.5pp $-377 +1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$61,768
Closing costs
$7,412
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 36 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3861 Baxley Villas Ct Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1604 $1,835 $1.14 8d 1 0.73mi
1637 Ascend Ln Middleburg, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1171 $2,259 $1.93 58d 12 0.78mi
1503 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1468 $1,800 $1.23 10d 1 0.81mi
1469 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1468 $2,000 $1.36 119d 1 0.84mi
1854 Alberta Ct N Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1190 $1,735 $1.46 75d 1 0.88mi
1834 Manitoba Ct N Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1266 $1,695 $1.34 64d 1 0.89mi
1854 Mackenzie Ct N Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1536 $1,659 $1.08 69d 1 0.91mi
1846 Manitoba Ct N Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1284 $2,036 $1.59 10d 1 0.92mi
1862 Mackenzie Ct N Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1088 $1,650 $1.52 94d 1 0.93mi
1371 Summerbrook Dr Middleburg, FL 4.0 2.0 1467 $1,915 $1.31 64d 1 0.95mi
1871 Alberta Ct S Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1524 $1,720 $1.13 119d 1 0.96mi
1809 Penzance Pkwy Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1709 $1,990 $1.16 81d 1 0.97mi
1809 Penzance Pkwy Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1708 $1,990 $1.17 88d 1 0.97mi
1685 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL 2.0 2.5 1210 $2,200 $1.82 10d 1 1.00mi
1633 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.5 1502 $1,900 $1.26 119d 1 1.02mi
1629 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL 2.0 3.0 1210 $1,800 $1.49 94d 1 1.02mi
1883 Mackenzie Ct S Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1260 $1,628 $1.29 88d 1 1.02mi
1883 Mackenzie Ct S Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1260 $1,654 $1.31 94d 1 1.02mi
1334 Camp Ridge Ln Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1545 $2,175 $1.41 119d 1 1.12mi
1804 Sherwood Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1206 $1,685 $1.40 10d 1 1.19mi
1291 Sorrelwood Ct Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1797 $1,950 $1.09 1d 1 1.22mi
1811 Sheraton Lakes Cir Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1312 $1,650 $1.26 8d 1 1.24mi
1706 Foggy Day Dr Middleburg, FL 4.0 2.0 1792 $2,030 $1.13 64d 1 1.25mi
1867 Sheraton Lakes Cir Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1296 $1,395 $1.08 10d 1 1.27mi
4013 White Bark Plantation Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1574 $1,821 $1.16 58d 1 1.30mi
3615 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL 4.0 2.5 1854 $1,945 $1.05 74d 1 1.35mi
3537 Whisper Creek Blvd Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1609 $1,950 $1.21 10d 1 1.35mi
1793 Foggy Day Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1803 $2,100 $1.16 119d 1 1.37mi
3640 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1178 $1,665 $1.41 88d 1 1.37mi
2044 Hunters Trace Cir Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1380 $1,735 $1.26 0d 1 1.37mi
1976 Hunters Trace Cir Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1576 $1,865 $1.18 83d 1 1.43mi
3413 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1312 $1,711 $1.30 116d 1 1.47mi
1897 High Prairie Ln Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1729 $1,950 $1.13 10d 1 1.47mi
1897 High Prairie Ln Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1729 $1,950 $1.13 5d 1 1.47mi
1568 Backwater Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1594 $1,895 $1.19 119d 1 1.48mi
1880 Pineta Cove Dr Middleburg, FL 3.0 2.0 1316 $1,930 $1.47 1d 1 1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Unit is offered unfurnishedNot a senior community
HOA & community
Community association (Westfield Park) with playgroundAssociation fee approximately $176 per month

Exterior

Parking
Garage and off-street parkingOne-car garage
Utilities
Public sewerCable availableElectricity connectedWater connectedSewer connected
Home design
TownhouseTwo levelsProperty attachedUsed as multi-family and residential
Construction
Composition siding and fiber cement exteriorShingle roof
Exterior features
PatioAsphalt road access

Interior

Kitchen
Electric cooktop and electric ovenDishwasherGarbage disposalRefrigeratorIce maker
Bedrooms
Three bedrooms (all on the second level)
Flooring
CarpetLaminateVinyl
Bathrooms
Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Kitchen islandSix total rooms
Laundry & utility
Washer and dryer includedLaundry located on upper level

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $247,070 Active 138 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $247,070 Active 137 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $245,990 Active 136 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $245,990 Active 135 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $245,990 Active 134 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    days on market $245,990 Active 133 DOM
  7. 2026-09-18
    days on market $245,990 Active 132 DOM
  8. 2026-09-17
    days on market $245,990 Active 131 DOM
  9. 2026-09-16
    days on market $245,990 Active 130 DOM
  10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $245,990 Active 129 DOM
  11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $245,990 Active 128 DOM
  12. 2026-09-14
    price $245,990 Active 127 DOM
  13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $245,240 Active 127 DOM
  14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $245,240 Active 126 DOM
  15. 2026-09-11
    days on market $245,240 Active 125 DOM
  16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $245,240 Active 119 DOM
  17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $245,240 Active 118 DOM
  18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $245,240 Active 117 DOM
  19. 2026-08-31
    days on market $245,240 Active 114 DOM
  20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $245,240 Active 112 DOM
  21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $245,240 Active 111 DOM
  22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $245,240 Active 110 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $245,240 Active 108 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $245,240 Active 107 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $245,240 Active 106 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $245,240 Active 105 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $245,240 Active 104 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $245,240 Active 103 DOM
  29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $245,240 Active 102 DOM
  30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $245,240 Active 101 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $245,240 Active 100 DOM
  32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $245,240 Active 99 DOM
  33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $245,240 Active 98 DOM
  34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $245,240 Active 97 DOM
  35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $245,240 Active 96 DOM
  36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $245,240 Active 95 DOM
  37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $245,240 Active 94 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $245,240 Active 93 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $245,240 Active 92 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $245,240 Active 91 DOM
  41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $245,240 Active 90 DOM
  42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $245,240 Active 89 DOM
  43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $245,240 Active 88 DOM
  44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $245,240 Active 87 DOM
  45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $245,240 Active 86 DOM
  46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $245,240 Active 83 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $245,240 Active 81 DOM
  48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $245,240 Active 80 DOM
  49. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $245,240 Active 78 DOM
  50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $239,990 Active 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$23,860
− Mortgage interest
−$13,840
− Property taxes
−$3,706
− Insurance
−$1,235
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,909
− Management
−$1,909
− HOA
−$2,112
− Depreciation
−$7,187
Taxable loss
−$8,038
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,929
After-tax cash flow
$-1,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhome in Westfield Park offers a modern design with new construction and well-maintained features, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tynes Elementary School B FL #552/2,144 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Wilkinson Junior High School C FL #232/571 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Middleburg High School D- FL #216/667 Nat'l #6,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Clay
NCES district ID
1200300
Math proficiency
58% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
59% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income
$59,379
Composite
50.73/100
National rank
#1815
State rank
#14 of 73 in FL
C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Middleburg

Score
65/100
State rank
#657
US rank
#13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Clay County · 230,495 people
City population
58,983
Metro
Jacksonville, FL
Population (ZIP)
58,983
Household income
$84,431
Rent vs Own
20.7% rent · 79.3% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
230,495 people
By 2030
242,427 · +5.2%
By 2040
262,244 · +13.8%
By 2050
275,148 · +19.4%
By 2075
295,397 · +28.2%
By 2100
287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity
White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
Common ancestry
Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born
7% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home
87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

2024 margin
Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
2008→2024 swing
+3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
All cycles
2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-09 Listed $249,990 realMLS
  • 2026-05-08 Listed $249,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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