2807 S Nebraska St · Marion, IN 46953

$51,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1948 5,663 sqft lot $68/sqft · at area comps Est $53k · at est. ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home or investment property! 2 beds, 1 full bath, with detached garage. 2 year old metal roof, newer tankless water heater, forced heat & central a/c. New front deck, updated trim and stained hardwoods, new privacy fence. Property is being sold as is.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Front deck
• Updated trim

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• FRONT DECK
• UPDATED TRIM
• STAINED HARDWOODS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($807 rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 8.2% in Marion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#337 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Marion Community Schools (town): math 18% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #277 of 301 in IN (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Frances Slocum Elem School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #893 of 994 statewide, top 91%, 472 students, 81% FRL); John L Mcculloch Junior High Sch (math 11% / reading 22%, grade F, #287 of 330 statewide, top 88%, 524 students, 74% FRL); Marion High School (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #308 of 369 statewide, top 84%, 1,050 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 52 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $359 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $47,319 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.38%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,068
• List price: $51,999
• Delta: -2.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2104 S Gallatin St	0.48mi	2/1.0	760 (-1%)	3mo	$54,000	$71	74
511 W 25th St	0.24mi	2/1.0	672 (-12%)	4mo	$137,000	$204	65
2701 S Washington St	0.23mi	2/1.0	852 (+11%)	8mo	$25,500	$30	65
2307 S Race St	0.33mi	2/1.0	672 (-12%)	8mo	$50,000	$74	56
111 E 35th St	0.50mi	2/1.0	820 (+7%)	16mo	$42,500	$52	53
812 E 28th St	0.68mi	2/1.0	720 (-6%)	9mo	$92,000	$128	50
2722 S Home Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	868 (+13%)	6mo	$58,000	$67	39
808 E 28th St	0.65mi	2/1.0	864 (+12%)	16mo	$85,000	$98	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $10,419
• Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $33,343
• Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46953

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $51,999

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $311	+0% $296	+5% $281	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $232	-5% $264	+0% $296	+5% $328	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $309	base $296	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2516 S Washington St Unit 1 Marion, IN	1.0	1.0	800	$675	$0.84	45d	1	0.25mi
703 E 28th St Marion, IN	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,200	$1.11	45d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Great starter home or investment property! 2 beds, 1 full bath, with detached garage. 2 year old metal roof, newer tankless water heater, forced heat & central a/c. New front deck, updated trim and stained hardwoods, new privacy fence. Property is being sold as is.

2. 2026-02-01
   listed $51,999 Active 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Great starter home or investment property! 2 beds, 1 full bath, with detached garage. 2 year old metal roof, newer tankless water heater, forced heat & central a/c. New front deck, updated trim and stained hardwoods, new privacy fence. Property is being sold as is.

3. 2025-09-08
   price $59,900
4. 2025-07-28
   listed $62,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$775
• − Management: −$775
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $2,882
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$692
• After-tax cash flow: $2,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1806390
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,415
• Composite: 17.13/100
• National rank: #9115
• State rank: #277 of 301 in IN

Livability — Marion

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #13006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, IN
• County: Grant County · 41,561 people
• City population: 41,561
• Metro: Marion, IN
• Population (ZIP): 23,372
• Household income: $46,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 597.0

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,394 people
• By 2030: 62,145 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 57,252 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 52,968 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 45,986 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 39,400 · -38.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 28.2% · R 70.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+22.0 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.47%
• Current HPI: 171.7246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marion, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $51,999 IRMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $59,900 IRMLS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $62,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $570 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.