125 Allen Rd · Copperhill, TN 37317

$184,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Manufactured public records · 130 Days on market

Built 1995 1.51 ac lot $172/sqft · 24% below area Est $243k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home situated on private 1.51 acres of useable rolling land with a private spring and branch. Home was once on spring water and can be again if desired. Public water, public utilities, and gentle drive to a well taken care of 2 bedroom, 2 bath home. Home has an addition 16x20 den off of the kitchen. Spacious kitchen with bar. All appliances included. All widows were replaced within last 5 years. Home has central HVAC and also 2 stand alone gas heaters. Plumbing has been updated. Master bedroom has walk in closet and large master bath. Perfect family home or getaway. Plenty of outdoor storage with 2 nice sheds for tools and lawn mower.

Key facts

• 1.51 acre lot
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($442/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.7% in Copperhill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#312 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Polk County (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #44 of 139 in TN (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 211 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $185k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,368
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -24.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $103,075
• Equity at exit: $166,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $301,741
• Equity at exit: $359,220

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37317

• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,774/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $101	+0% $37	+5% $-27	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-29	+0% $37	+5% $103	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $84	base $37	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $184,900 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,900 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,900 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,900 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,900 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    status Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Beautiful home situated on private 1.51 acres of useable rolling land with a private spring and branch. Home was once on spring water and can be again if desired. Public water, public utilities, and gentle drive to a well taken care of 2 bedroom, 2 bath home. Home has an addition 16x20 den off of the kitchen. Spacious kitchen with bar. All appliances included. All widows were replaced within last 5 years. Home has central HVAC and also 2 stand alone gas heaters. Plumbing has been updated. Master bedroom has walk in closet and large master bath. Perfect family home or getaway. Plenty of outdoor storage with 2 nice sheds for tools and lawn mower.

18. 2026-04-27
    price $184,900 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Beautiful home situated on private 1.51 acres of useable rolling land with a private spring and branch. Home was once on spring water and can be again if desired. Public water, public utilities, and gentle drive to a well taken care of 2 bedroom, 2 bath home. Home has an addition 16x20 den off of the kitchen. Spacious kitchen with bar. All appliances included. All widows were replaced within last 5 years. Home has central HVAC and also 2 stand alone gas heaters. Plumbing has been updated. Master bedroom has walk in closet and large master bath. Perfect family home or getaway. Plenty of outdoor storage with 2 nice sheds for tools and lawn mower.

19. 2026-04-01
    status Pending 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Beautiful home situated on private 1.51 acres of useable rolling land with a private spring and branch. Home was once on spring water and can be again if desired. Public water, public utilities, and gentle drive to a well taken care of 2 bedroom, 2 bath home. Home has an addition 16x20 den off of the kitchen. Spacious kitchen with bar. All appliances included. All widows were replaced within last 5 years. Home has central HVAC and also 2 stand alone gas heaters. Plumbing has been updated. Master bedroom has walk in closet and large master bath. Perfect family home or getaway. Plenty of outdoor storage with 2 nice sheds for tools and lawn mower.

20. 2026-01-14
    listed $199,900 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Beautiful home situated on private 1.51 acres of useable rolling land with a private spring and branch. Home was once on spring water and can be again if desired. Public water, public utilities, and gentle drive to a well taken care of 2 bedroom, 2 bath home. Home has an addition 16x20 den off of the kitchen. Spacious kitchen with bar. All appliances included. All widows were replaced within last 5 years. Home has central HVAC and also 2 stand alone gas heaters. Plumbing has been updated. Master bedroom has walk in closet and large master bath. Perfect family home or getaway. Plenty of outdoor storage with 2 nice sheds for tools and lawn mower.

21. 2023-05-10
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,774
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$2,660
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$638
• After-tax cash flow: $1,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk County
• NCES district ID: 4703450
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,990
• Composite: 26.72/100
• National rank: #7149
• State rank: #44 of 139 in TN

Livability — Copperhill

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #21277

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,576

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 16,567 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 16,015 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 15,172 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 12,998 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 10,606 · -36.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 10% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.1) · D 15.5% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.0pp · 2024: -68.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.1 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+59.0 2012: R+37.2 2008: R+33.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 102.70%
• Current HPI: 357.312
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+84.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Relisted — NEGBOR
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $184,900 NEGBOR
• 2026-04-01 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2026-01-14 Listed $199,900 NEGBOR
• 2023-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $166 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.