31 Chelsea Dr · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$174,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 966 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1976 Average condition 4,791 sqft lot $181/sqft · 31% below area Est $252k · 31% under $175/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME TO THE ANDOVER MODEL LOCATED IN SOUGHT AFTER CRESTWOOD VILLAGE 7, THIS HOME OFFERS AN OPEN AIRY LAYOUT THAT FLOWS FROM THE LIVING/DINING INTO THE BRIGHT KITCHEN WHICH LEADS TO A COZY DEN WITH BI FOLD DOORS FOR PRIVACY TO WATCH MOVIES, READ OR CAN BE A GREAT HOME OFFICE TOO.....LIGHT OAK LAMINATE FLOORING THROUGHOUT ENTIRE HOME.... NEWER & NICE UPDATED FULL BATH, NEWER WINDOWS, ROOF, AND CENTRAL AIR WITH A NEWER HEAT PUMP TOO!!....THE HOME SITS ON A SPACIOUS CORNER LOT ON A FINGER WITH A PICKET FENCED IN PATIO & ROLLING AWNING...THE COMMUNITY HAS A BUS & OFFERS LOTS OF AMENITIES.. .CLOSE TO EVERYTHING...HURRY THIS ONE WONT LAST!!!

Key facts

• Open airy layout
• Bright kitchen
• Cozy den

Tags

• OPEN AIRY LAYOUT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• COZY DEN
• BI FOLD DOORS
• LIGHT OAK LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED FULL BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $175k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.68%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,965
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -30.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 S Chestnut Ave #72	0.08mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	6mo	$235,000	$243	91
38 Chelsea Dr #70	0.18mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	8mo	$232,000	$240	85
13 Churchill Rd #71	0.42mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	2mo	$189,000	$196	79
24 Churchill Rd Sec 71	0.38mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	7mo	$256,000	$265	76
53 Westport Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	8mo	$204,000	$211	68
10 Falmouth Ave #72	0.46mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	14mo	$255,000	$264	67
35 Churchill Rd #71	0.52mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	12mo	$225,000	$233	66
9 Apple Ln	0.33mi	2/1.5	1,072 (+11%)	5mo	$222,000	$207	61
8 Westport Dr Sec 71 Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0	858 (-11%)	7mo	$230,000	$268	58
8 Westport Dr #71	0.38mi	2/1.0	858 (-11%)	7mo	$230,000	$268	58
55 Westport Dr #71	0.53mi	2/1.0	858 (-11%)	0mo	$170,000	$198	56
6 Central Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,098 (+14%)	15mo	$255,000	$232	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,635
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $24,722
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,752

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	1d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $174,900 Pending 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $174,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $174,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $174,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $174,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $174,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    price $179,700 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE ANDOVER MODEL LOCATED IN SOUGHT AFTER CRESTWOOD VILLAGE 7, THIS HOME OFFERS AN OPEN AIRY LAYOUT THAT FLOWS FROM THE LIVING/DINING INTO THE BRIGHT KITCHEN WHICH LEADS TO A COZY DEN WITH BI FOLD DOORS FOR PRIVACY TO WATCH MOVIES, READ OR CAN BE A GREAT HOME OFFICE TOO.....LIGHT OAK LAMINATE FLOORING THROUGHOUT ENTIRE HOME.... NEWER & NICE UPDATED FULL BATH, NEWER WINDOWS, ROOF, AND CENTRAL AIR WITH A NEWER HEAT PUMP TOO!!....THE HOME SITS ON A SPACIOUS CORNER LOT ON A FINGER WITH A PICKET FENCED IN PATIO & ROLLING AWNING...THE COMMUNITY HAS A BUS & OFFERS LOTS OF AMENITIES.. .CLOSE TO EVERYTHING...HURRY THIS ONE WONT LAST!!!

11. 2026-05-11
    price $187,700 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE ANDOVER MODEL LOCATED IN SOUGHT AFTER CRESTWOOD VILLAGE 7, THIS HOME OFFERS AN OPEN AIRY LAYOUT THAT FLOWS FROM THE LIVING/DINING INTO THE BRIGHT KITCHEN WHICH LEADS TO A COZY DEN WITH BI FOLD DOORS FOR PRIVACY TO WATCH MOVIES, READ OR CAN BE A GREAT HOME OFFICE TOO.....LIGHT OAK LAMINATE FLOORING THROUGHOUT ENTIRE HOME.... NEWER & NICE UPDATED FULL BATH, NEWER WINDOWS, ROOF, AND CENTRAL AIR WITH A NEWER HEAT PUMP TOO!!....THE HOME SITS ON A SPACIOUS CORNER LOT ON A FINGER WITH A PICKET FENCED IN PATIO & ROLLING AWNING...THE COMMUNITY HAS A BUS & OFFERS LOTS OF AMENITIES.. .CLOSE TO EVERYTHING...HURRY THIS ONE WONT LAST!!!

12. 2026-04-07
    listed $199,700 Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE ANDOVER MODEL LOCATED IN SOUGHT AFTER CRESTWOOD VILLAGE 7, THIS HOME OFFERS AN OPEN AIRY LAYOUT THAT FLOWS FROM THE LIVING/DINING INTO THE BRIGHT KITCHEN WHICH LEADS TO A COZY DEN WITH BI FOLD DOORS FOR PRIVACY TO WATCH MOVIES, READ OR CAN BE A GREAT HOME OFFICE TOO.....LIGHT OAK LAMINATE FLOORING THROUGHOUT ENTIRE HOME.... NEWER & NICE UPDATED FULL BATH, NEWER WINDOWS, ROOF, AND CENTRAL AIR WITH A NEWER HEAT PUMP TOO!!....THE HOME SITS ON A SPACIOUS CORNER LOT ON A FINGER WITH A PICKET FENCED IN PATIO & ROLLING AWNING...THE COMMUNITY HAS A BUS & OFFERS LOTS OF AMENITIES.. .CLOSE TO EVERYTHING...HURRY THIS ONE WONT LAST!!!

13. 2000-11-15
    soldstatus $45,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    NICE ANDOVER W/ C/A 4 YRS OLD--VINYL REPLACEMENT TILT-IN WINDOWS--LIGHT APPL'S--SHOWER DOORS--VERTICALS T/O--BG CARPET--ENCLOSED PORCH IN REAR-- BUILT-IN STORAGE SHELVES IN GARAGE--HOUSE WILL BE POWER WASHED--

14. 2000-10-10
    historical 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    NICE ANDOVER W/ C/A 4 YRS OLD--VINYL REPLACEMENT TILT-IN WINDOWS--LIGHT APPL'S--SHOWER DOORS--VERTICALS T/O--BG CARPET--ENCLOSED PORCH IN REAR-- BUILT-IN STORAGE SHELVES IN GARAGE--HOUSE WILL BE POWER WASHED--

15. 2000-08-22
    listed $48,900 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    NICE ANDOVER W/ C/A 4 YRS OLD--VINYL REPLACEMENT TILT-IN WINDOWS--LIGHT APPL'S--SHOWER DOORS--VERTICALS T/O--BG CARPET--ENCLOSED PORCH IN REAR-- BUILT-IN STORAGE SHELVES IN GARAGE--HOUSE WILL BE POWER WASHED--

16. 1999-03-05
    soldstatus $44,500
17. 1999-02-20
    historical
18. 1998-09-11
    listed $47,900
19. 1995-03-13
    soldstatus $33,000
20. 1995-01-23
    historical
21. 1994-12-28
    listed $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $1,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$406
• After-tax cash flow: $3,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This home is in average condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. It has an open airy layout with light oak laminate flooring throughout, newer windows, roof, and central air with a newer heat pump. The home has a picket fence and rolling awning, which can be improved with a new picket fence and rolling awning. The home is located in a sought-after neighborhood with lots of amenities and is close to everything.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Picket fence — Slight wear and tear.
• Minor Rolling awning — Slight wear and tear.
• Minor Landscaping — Some bushes and trees need trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance.
• Resale Replace picket fence — A new picket fence can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Replace rolling awning — A new rolling awning can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can significantly increase the home's curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making the home more attractive to renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Picket fence · Slight wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Rolling awning · Slight wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some bushes and trees need trimming and maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance. ↑
• Resale Replace picket fence — A new picket fence can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace rolling awning — A new rolling awning can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can significantly increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Replace HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, making the home more attractive to renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+392.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $179,700 MOMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $187,700 MOMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $199,700 MOMLS
• 2000-11-15 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MOMLS
• 2000-10-10 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2000-08-22 Listed $48,900 MOMLS
• 1999-03-05 Sold (MLS) $44,500 MOMLS
• 1999-02-20 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-09-11 Listed $47,900 MOMLS
• 1995-03-13 Sold (MLS) $33,000 MOMLS
• 1995-01-23 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1994-12-28 Listed $36,500 MOMLS