31 Stanley Dr · Shirley, NY 11967

$439,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1997 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot Est $437k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Home Was Just Reduced To Sell! A Great Buy In Shirley With Low, Low Taxes!! Be First Or Be Sorry! This Lovely Ranch With Great Curb Appeal Has So Much To Offer! The 7Yr Young Kitchen Features Granite Counters, Chestnut Cabinetry, Subway Tile Backsplash, Stainless Appliances, Large Undermount Sink, Crown Molding, Hi-Hats & Red Oak Hardwood Flooring. The Living Room Boasts Like-New Neutral Carpeting, Crown Molding, Hi-Hats, & A New Built-In Air Conditioning Unit That Cools The Entire Home. A Spacious Formal Dining Rm With Red Oak Hardwood Floors, Red Oak Cubby Shelving, Crown Molding, & Chandelier Is Perfect For Entertaining. A Sliding Door Leads Directly To The Trex Deck

Key facts

• Chestnut cabinetry
• Stainless appliances
• Granite counters

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERS
• CHESTNUT CABINETRY
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• LARGE UNDERMOUNT SINK
• CROWN MOLDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 3 vehicles; No carport
• Security: Fire alarm; Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Attic: full, unfinished with storage and Bilco door access
• Exterior features: Deck; Fire pit; Exterior lighting; Mailbox; Rain gutters; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Granite counters; Open kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Crown molding; ENERGY STAR qualified doors; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Granite counters; His and hers closets; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan with open kitchen; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Soaking tub; Storage; Walk-through kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room; Electric water heater; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $440k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-221/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $437k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $370k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $370k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John S Hobart Elementary School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,274 of 2,108 statewide, top 61%, 798 students, 58% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($433k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $282k; list at $440k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $370,459 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Stanley Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,092 (0%)	1mo	$460,000	$421	100
40 Fairview Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-4%)	2mo	$400,000	$381	84
20 Bogota Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-0%)	3mo	$460,000	$423	79
344 Elm Rd W	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (0%)	1mo	$415,000	$380	78
62 Moriches Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,095 (+0%)	1mo	$360,000	$329	66
56 Brushwood Dr	0.56mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (-2%)	1mo	$360,000	$335	65
94 Baybright Dr E	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-7%)	2mo	$545,000	$534	64
77 Diana Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+1%)	4mo	$400,000	$364	62
67 Lombardy Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-3%)	1mo	$422,500	$400	58
9 Pine Tree Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-6%)	1mo	$441,000	$430	55
27 Pinewood Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,250 (+14%)	1mo	$598,000	$478	45
46 Saint George Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	3mo	$450,000	$361	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-72,474
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-64,631
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,785/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$778
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,728

Max offer price $436,747

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $106	+0% $-18	+5% $-143	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-311	-5% $-165	+0% $-18	+5% $128	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $94	base $-18	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	5d	1	0.23mi
12 Hackensack Rd Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	792	$3,150	$3.98	19d	1	0.33mi
67 Saint George Dr Shirley, NY	2.0	1.0	714	$2,750	$3.85	46d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   status Active
3. 2026-03-30
   price $439,999
4. 2026-03-23
   listed $479,999 Active
5. 2006-05-16
   soldstatus $282,000
6. 1997-07-21
   soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,785 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,111 · $509/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,325/yr (+$110/mo · 27.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 94% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$4,785
• − Insurance: −$2,866
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,556
• − Management: −$3,556
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$7,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,861
• After-tax cash flow: $1,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home with a good condition score and cosmetic rehab level is a great buy with low taxes. It features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, hardwood flooring, and a new built-in air conditioning unit. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting and modern
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring in living room — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value
• Resale Install new chandelier in dining room — A new chandelier can enhance the aesthetic appeal and increase the home's curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting and modern ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring in living room — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Resale Install new chandelier in dining room — A new chandelier can enhance the aesthetic appeal and increase the home's curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+383.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $439,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $479,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $282,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,785 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.