288 Fredericksburg Rd · Twin Lakes, VA 22968

$167,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2014 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large ranch style home situated in Greene County, VA on approx. 2 level acres. This home features 3 bedrooms. 2 baths, an open living room-dining area-kitchen and family room. The side door leads into a laundry room and the rear of the house leaves room for your future deck/porch to be built. This property might qualify for owner financing, VENDEE, see attachment. The property is being sold as-is/where-is with no warranties and or seller paid inspections. This home will not qualify for most secondary market loans.

Key facts

• Level acres
• Laundry room
• Ranch style home

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• LEVEL ACRES
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• FUTURE DECK PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Conventional sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One level
• Construction: Manufactured construction with vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Approximately 2 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Crawl space basement; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#419 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathanael Greene Primary (347 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.53%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $490,752
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
82 Grants Pl	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,835 (+6%)	10mo	$484,000	$264	62
339 Reva Ln	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,636 (-5%)	18mo	$465,000	$284	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,890
• Equity at exit: $24,900

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $22,134
• Equity at exit: $14,439

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22968

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,974/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $167,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $427	-5% $380	+0% $332	+5% $285	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $260	+0% $332	+5% $405	+10% $477
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $375	base $332	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $167,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $167,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $167,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $167,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $167,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   remarks 519-char remark
7. 2026-05-30
   listed $167,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,974 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,974 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$1,974
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable income: $1,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $3,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Twin Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #17990

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,603

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.51%
• Current HPI: 270.0786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $167,000 HRAR

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,974 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.