8906 Stanley Oak Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$399,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,544 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2020 8,537 sqft lot Est $394k · at est. $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The generous single story Russo plan by Lennar features a welcoming entry foyer, a spacious study with french doors and a stylish box window, an open family room with the option to add a corner fireplace, an open island kitchen with large walk-in pantry, and an open dining room with box windows and access to a relaxing covered rear patio. The generous master suite features a separate shower and tub, dual sinks, a private toilet enclosure, and a large master closet.

Key facts

• Study with doors
• Updated vent hood
• Farmhouse sink

Tags

• LENNAR RUSSO FLOOR-PLAN
• STUDY WITH DOORS
• KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• UPDATED VENT HOOD
• FARMHOUSE SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Lennar
• HOA & community: HOA (SPCA) with annual fee; Annual association fee of $1,580 (includes clubhouse and recreation facilities); Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground, park, dog park, golf course, basketball and sport courts, pickleball, tennis courts, meeting/party rooms, picnic area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2020; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Concrete road surface
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Built in 2020
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private backyard; Back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Hot tub / spa; Tennis court(s); Association pool (community); Cul-de-sac location; Backs to greenbelt/park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Energy Star qualified appliances; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Three additional bedrooms (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Double vanities and soaking tub in primary bath; Separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Energy-efficient HVAC
• Interior features: Crown molding; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Vanity; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,998/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $394,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,517 (-1%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	79
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,591 (+2%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	77
8703 Red Heron Ln	0.19mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,615 (+3%)	8mo	$459,000	$176	73
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-6%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	69
1610 Country Air Ln	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-6%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	65
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,413 (-5%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	61
1706 Country Air Ln	0.48mi	4/3.5	2,700 (+6%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	60
1722 Country Air Ln	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,773 (+9%)	6mo	$419,000	$151	59
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,763 (+9%)	4mo	$399,950	$145	56
1743 Country Air Ln	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-10%)	6mo	$385,000	$168	51
1506 Country Air Ln	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,808 (+10%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	51
2610 Lazy Vine Ln	0.70mi	4/4.5	2,907 (+14%)	1mo	$715,000	$246	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-22,320
• Equity at exit: $83,891

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-9,808
• Equity at exit: $77,704

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$1,020 /mo · $12,243/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,325

Max offer price $399,999

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $645	+0% $532	+5% $419	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $137	-5% $334	+0% $532	+5% $729	+10% $927
Rate	-1.0pp $733	-0.5pp $634	base $532	+0.5pp $428	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	2d	1	0.08mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.28mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	11d	1	0.75mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,999 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,999 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,999 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,999 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $399,999 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,243 · $1,020/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,243 · $1,020/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$12,243
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,798
• − Management: −$4,798
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable income: $510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$122
• After-tax cash flow: $6,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+22.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $399,999 HARMLS
• 2020-11-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-07-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-04 Listed $325,790 HARMLS

Property tax history

+46.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,243 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.