201 W Oakview Ave #15 · Centralia, WA 98531

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Land · 85 Days on market

Built 1999 $80/sqft · 19% above area Est $108k · 19% over ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 1627 square foot, 3 bed, 2 bath home in an all-ages park. Home features tile flooring in kitchen, dining room, and primary bath. Heat pump for efficient and comfort all year long. 5-piece primary bath. Fully fenced yard with perennial landscaping, and a covered gazabo. 2 car detached carport with a storage shed to the side. 10% down lending options available.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1999
• Listed 84 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.06%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,000
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 19.44%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,606
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $19,850
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,282/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,599

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $341	-5% $304	+0% $268	+5% $231	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $191	+0% $268	+5% $344	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $333	-0.5pp $300	base $268	+0.5pp $234	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1411 Rose St #3 Centralia, WA	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,295	$1.21	44d	1	1.15mi
914 B St Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	3.0	1600	$2,375	$1.48	44d	1	1.24mi
701 H St Apt E Centralia, WA	2.0	1.0	1137	$1,500	$1.32	44d	1	1.39mi
701 H St Apt R Centralia, WA	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,500	$1.27	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    price $129,000
18. 2026-03-26
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,282 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,282 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,282
• − Insurance: −$5,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
• − Management: −$1,861
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,513
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$363
• After-tax cash flow: $2,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $129,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $139,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,282 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.