15487 S Black Mountain Rd · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$218,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 976 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1988 8,276 sqft lot Est $212k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy home nestled behind shady pine trees. Covered front porch perfect for relaxation. Freshly painted two bedrooms, two baths, living room, and den. Open back yard, storage shed. Nice country livin'. Ready to move in. Seller's manager is an Arizona licensed real estate agent.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open back yard
• Storage shed

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN BACK YARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Attached property; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Painted exterior; Other construction materials; Other roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Outdoor storage; Chain link and partial wood fencing; Grass in backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Two master bathrooms; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hook-up only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $218k implies a 957% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,431 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20583 E Conestoga Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	973 (-0%)	10mo	$225,000	$231	74
20659 E Sierra Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	930 (-5%)	17mo	$205,000	$220	68
20555 E Park View Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	840 (-14%)	5mo	$168,900	$201	65
20570 E Larry Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	967 (-1%)	12mo	$85,000	$88	65
20525 E Conestoga Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+11%)	10mo	$265,000	$245	57
15339 S Rolling Ridge Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	887 (-9%)	4mo	$150,000	$169	52
16070 S Indian Bend Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	898 (-8%)	7mo	$150,000	$167	52
16062 S Indian Bend Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0	925 (-5%)	14mo	$206,000	$223	51
20524 E Concho Ln	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,119 (+15%)	5mo	$199,000	$178	46
20715 E Larry Ln	0.48mi	2/1.5	840 (-14%)	12mo	$130,000	$155	42
16029 S Apache Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,061 (+9%)	11mo	$230,000	$217	38
16057 S Indian Bend Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+11%)	15mo	$252,500	$234	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $124,853
• Equity at exit: $196,392

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $362,528
• Equity at exit: $423,526

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $457/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $218,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $160	+0% $98	+5% $-212	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $30	+0% $98	+5% $167	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $153	base $98	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $218,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $218,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $218,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $218,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $223,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $223,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $223,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $223,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $223,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $223,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $223,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $223,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    price $223,000
17. 2026-05-09
    price $228,000
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $232,100 Active
19. 2026-03-02
    historical
20. 2025-12-22
    price $234,500
21. 2025-09-26
    price $240,000
22. 2025-09-23
    listed $248,800 Active
23. 2025-09-16
    historical
24. 2025-03-18
    price $248,800
25. 2025-03-15
    listed $235,000 Active
26. 2024-07-09
    historical
27. 2024-03-14
    price $184,500
28. 2024-03-14
    status Active
29. 2024-02-17
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
30. 2024-01-03
    listed $174,500 Active
31. 2024-01-01
    historical
32. 2023-11-14
    status Active
33. 2023-09-25
    historical
34. 2023-09-14
    listed $174,500 Active
35. 2012-06-06
    soldstatus $20,615
36. 2005-04-04
    soldstatus $56,900
37. 2005-04-04
    soldstatus $56,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $457 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$982/yr (+$82/mo · 215.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$457
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$2,618
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$628
• After-tax cash flow: $1,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+291.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $223,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $228,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $232,100 ARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $234,500 ARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $240,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $248,800 ARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $248,800 ARMLS
• 2025-03-15 Listed $235,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $184,500 ARMLS
• 2024-03-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-02-17 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listed $174,500 ARMLS
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-11-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-09-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-09-14 Listed $174,500 ARMLS
• 2012-06-06 Sold (MLS) $20,615 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records
• 2005-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $457 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.