401 W Arch St · Paris, AR 72855

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1975 0.25 ac lot $61/sqft · 31% below area Est $123k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent location close to schools, work, hospital and shopping in Paris AR. Great starter home or perfect for an investor with renter already in place and a long rental history. This is a great opportuinty, don't let it get away!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 113 days

Tags

• LOCATION CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• LOCATION CLOSE TO WORK
• LOCATION CLOSE TO HOSPITAL
• LOCATION CLOSE TO SHOPPING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $84,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$123,265) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#68 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris School District (town): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 238 in AR (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $85k implies a 399% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.05%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,265
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -31.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Hall St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+3%)	2mo	$163,500	$114	76
1112 Elm St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+2%)	12mo	$136,000	$96	76
702 5th St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+4%)	1mo	$57,000	$40	68
1104 N 4th St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,479 (+7%)	4mo	$62,000	$42	66
1805 Mary St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	1mo	$166,000	$124	61
1312 N 5th St	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+6%)	6mo	$175,000	$120	59
1107 N 4th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+11%)	6mo	$163,500	$106	57
402 W Main St	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-3%)	16mo	$155,000	$115	55
406 E Rosedale St	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,468 (+6%)	13mo	$50,000	$34	50
1406 W Walnut St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	10mo	$145,000	$121	36
1208 5th St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-14%)	23mo	$77,000	$65	31
817 E Chism St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (-11%)	15mo	$57,400	$47	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $10,268
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $39,830
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72855

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $607/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $672

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $84,900 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,900 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    price $84,900 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Excellent location close to schools, work, hospital and shopping in Paris AR. Great starter home or perfect for an investor with renter already in place and a long rental history. This is a great opportuinty, don't let it get away!

16. 2026-02-23
    listed $89,900 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Excellent location close to schools, work, hospital and shopping in Paris AR. Great starter home or perfect for an investor with renter already in place and a long rental history. This is a great opportuinty, don't let it get away!

17. 2012-03-01
    soldstatus $17,000
18. 2012-03-01
    soldstatus $17,000
19. 2000-04-24
    soldstatus $20,000
20. 1997-07-03
    soldstatus $30,000
21. 1996-03-18
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$607
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $3,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$801
• After-tax cash flow: $3,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris School District
• NCES district ID: 0511130
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,950
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5763
• State rank: #83 of 238 in AR

Livability — Paris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #8544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,462

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,046 people
• By 2030: 20,537 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,443 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 18,220 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 16,164 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 14,858 · -29.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 17.8% · R 80.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.40%
• Current HPI: 170.513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+430.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $84,900 NWARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $89,900 NWARMLS
• 2012-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $607 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.